In the past, it seems to take 1 month for effect of new season to show up in ISML results. A good example is 2009 Katsura Hinagiku where it took about a month from the start of the new season for Hinagiku to go from borderline Final 16 to 11th seed, and then another month for her to move on to beat Shana. Since Shana is likely top 4 character, already, a month of new material may be just enough. Still, I would feel more sure if Shana got 2 month of new material instead of 1 by the time of SE final phase. More importantly, though, it isn't just about Shana. It is that while the chance of Kanade getting new material is low, chance for other top 9 characters getting new materials is high. The law of average suggests that Kanade's chance isn't as good as people perceive right now.
Well I hope things change. Because Kanade winning by such ridiculous margins every time is getting old. I did note Shana 3rd season is coming in October, but isn't that too late? It may coincide with the Single Elimination finals, but is that really going to generate enough force since it's a 3rd season? Would have thought the majority of Shana fans were already establised now.
On a more interesting note, my Galaxy Express 999 marathon is over. All 113 episodes done in 5.5 days.
It won't be easy for Kanade to win the tiara. ISML history, as well as data from other moe tournament suggests that those that wins in the end are more likely to be those that stays in the middle of the pack until about 70% mark where they start their move to the top. The usual reason is that some character receives late boosts due to some new materials airing and win the whole thing before other characters can make the neccessary adjustments. In this light I suggested Kuroneko as most likely winner, thinking Ore Imo will get 2nd season in 2011 October. Since that is unlikely to come true, I have to consider Shana as the most likely to win, since her 3rd season WILL start on 2011 October, giving her almost a month worth of new materials before the Final SE phase starts. The only problem is, Shana has been marked as perennial runner up by too many people and this may make people vote against her, just for the fun of it, starting from quarter-finals. Even if Shana don't win the tiara, I don't think Kanade can win unless she gets a new OVA episode or at least some announcements of some official game and books that includes new images of Kanade which gives new things for people to talk about her. if Kanade don't get any new supporting materials, the chances are very likely for other powerful characters to receive significant amount of quality new materials within next 4 month and upset her. There just is too many powerful characters and too much time left for this to not happen.
Certainly you have a good knowledge of anime's history yourself, never meant to question that. And I've sure you know yourself moe fans would find it very hard to be able to watch retro shows because they are very reliant on visual cues, moods and catch phrases. And I guess that somewhat explains Kanade, but like you said, I'm not one that relies on those. I'm far more drawn by dialogue and what the character goes through. Also, there comes a point where a certain degree of cuteness becomes rather creepy.
I'm just annoyed at by how this season seems to be a one-horse race. In that link I showed you, I called Kanade being a powerhouse one year ago...I was told I was crazy. Now look what's happening. That's my main disappointment. I knew Kanade would be dominant (and funnily enough I called episode 5 as one of the reasons in that 2010 thread) but it shouldn't be this easy for her.
1. Absolute number of ISML votes not from top 2 countries in voting has steadily gone up. This number for 2011 is bigger than ever. The statement is true even if you say votes not from top 3 countries.
2. If you check the previous records for KBM, Super Best Moe, Chinese Saimoe, and Japanese Saimoe, you will find that kuudere-like submissive types tends to lose to tsundere types or those with more complicated personalities. KBM is repeatedly accused of being Best Tsundere Tournament instead of Best Moe Tournament. I do like to mention that KBM and Super Best Moe still holds record for most voters in a match that was open to International voters with 3 or more languages supported, thus shouldn't be left out in discussion of moe tournaments. Please also note that 2007 Super Best Moe was the spark that lead to creation of ISML.
3. As I repeated mentioned, I grew up in the 1970s watching anime, many which going back to 1960s and one, 1950s. I did try to engage people on the oldies by having historical characters in 2010 ISML exhibition. The main reason I seldom mention those series is because few wants to hear about them.
4. The 2 key Kanade moments are likely to be the last Kanade scene in ep 1, and also ep 5. It portrayed Kanade as lonely person who may be being misunderstood by the SSS members. They left a lasting impression on many, especially those who are more likely to be moved by visual cues instead of dialogues and plot advancements. It is rather clear that in AB, Nakamura Yuri is the one who sets things in motion. Whatever the reason, these plot movers don't seem to get the attention they deserve, whether in Western or Eastern worlds. In contrast, those that somehow stumble upon right combination of cute visual and catch phrases enjoy much adulations of fans. Still, I think most of winners of moe tournaments do possess some qualities that is worth pondering, even though it might take sometime before you can realize that those qualities exists.
You have very valid statistical points, but I'm not going to bother to reply in the ISML thread to avoid flaming from others. There's no mystery or intrigue to it at all this year and frankly, there's a growing feeling amongst those I know that this year's contest is purely being decided by two countries and effectively isn't 'International' anymore.
Frankly, I don't consider the numbers coming in to be representative versus if a poll was performed from random people or anime communities as a while. The subset of voting is mainly people who have neither the ability or the desire to watch anything pre-2005 - perhaps pre-2009 in some cases. Frankly, the 00s and age of digital animation has created a rift and really spoiled the current generation. There is a growing perception that unless the animation meets the modern standard, it's automatically not worth watching. And I don't want to sound discriminatory by saying the following, but I honestly believe it to be true due to upbringings, cultural values and how the populace views women and what they think they should be in an ideal wife/girlfriend - I find that the kuudere-like, silent, submissive type is the one that conservative Asians prefer (someone like Kanade, Yuki, Kuroneko and Eucliwood), while Westerners/more liberal Asians are more likely to be drawn into someone like Haruhi, Kyou, Tomoyo, Saber, Rin or C.C. because they're characters with deeper/more complex personalities and backstory.
Meh, I just don't really care, now. I've had it with the series that offer as little negativity as possible being the ones that are selling well in Japan and are now causing 2011 anime to be like it is. I haven't found a single title to like from 2011 thus far. I would have to look VERY far back to find another year where that was the case, maybe even as far back as 1975. There used to be an emphasis on anime's roots and where it came from. About stories that were solid, fulfilling and dramatic, which were consistent throughout entire episodes and series. These days, it's all about the mood, money-shot moments and the animation - a complete disregard of where anime came from, how it came to be what it is and the people who were important to animation techniques, character styles, genres, etc.
*shrug* 2011 anime turning me sour and going retro has heavily changed my opinions this year. And Kanade walking on water isn't helping, either.
You have valid points. I'm sure you'll provide a counter-argument to all of this. But I'm not sure I care. As far as I'm concerned, the non-offensive, non-negative characters will have their way and slice of life is already becoming prevalent due to its placid, tryptophanic mood. Helping host a 1975-1979 night tonight was infinitely more electric than recent anime. One episode of Galaxy Express 999 or one Episode of Rose of Versailles or one episode of Captain Harlock - they gave me more fulfillment than the last year of anime. I think if people were able to cross the barrier of non-digital animation, they would be amazed by what they would find in the pre-2000 days and see what people like Tezuka, Nagai and Matsumoto were able to accomplish. I know you've journeyed back to at least the 80s. I'd certainly hope you'd have ventured back to the 70s and 60s, because you seem like the type of person that would.
In closing, I'll actually be presenting a History of Anime panel at the local convention in late July with three friends while two of them are also doing a mecha panel which would also span from Nagai or earlier to the present. I think you'd be someone with enough of an open mind to appreciate them. If you care to see them once they're uploaded to Youtube, I shall send you links.
Peace. No hard feelings, but I simply don't care much about current series anymore and I remind people constantly - I called Kanade's dominance ONE YEAR AGO! Early into Angel Beats's airing, I said several times in the 2010 ISML thread that Kande and Yuri would be huge in the 2011 contest. Back then, most people thought I was crazy - you certainly thought I was wrong. And look what's happening now. I called this - ONE YEAR AGO! This was too easy to predict! It shouldn't be this way!
In your counter-argument, if you could list some moments that Kanade fans feel are critical to why so many people are voting for her this year, so that I could re-watch those scenes, maybe I could understand. But frankly, Kanade lost me the moment she stabbed Otonashi in Episode 1. I cared far more about Yuri than anyone else when I saw her backstory in Episode 2, her resilience throughout the series while showing some moments of tenderness, but ultimately her ability to remain human and resist the lure of ultimate power, choosing her friends instead, was rather heartwarming. Iwasawa's moments in Episode 3 were also inspiring.