Yeah, I have my doubts Tan Malaka's Republic would last. But rather then from civil war, I'd say it will be from allied invasion. IOTL, in the face of eventual Japanese invasion, native politicians proposed to colonial government to conscript Indonesian soldiers, which was refused. Understandably so, since once Indonesians are armed, they will stay so, which wasn't in their interest. I'd say their thinking will stay the same ITTL. Of course, Tan Malaka's regime will only last as long as the Japanese can support it, and once Indonesia falls into Allied hands, a conservative regime will be established over the country.
The thing about him is that, while being a rabid revolutionary marxist he was, he was also at the same time an unrepentant muslim, and aspired to combine pan-Islamism and socialist internationale. That led him to disagreement with the communist establishment IOTL. I don't think Socialist Japan will make anything out of his Islamism, but it remains that he's a perfect candidate to lead an Indonesian client state. And I imagine he won't let this chance pass to apply his ideals both domestically and internationally. It won't mean Japanese troops propping up revolutions in Middle East, but I think it will have impact over Islamic intellectual ferment and thus later influence the later Arab Nationalism and Communism-Islam relations.
Can you find a semi-plausible way for Indonesia to become communist by 1949? I need to do something with it for my Communist Japan TL but don't know anything about Indonesia.
Here are some basic conditions:
- PoD in 1900
- Japan becomes socialist/communist in 1923/24. They are interested in spreading socialism
- China is divided between various warlords and radicals. A militarist regime rules Manchuria and Beijing, and China proper is nominally under a federation, which after 1930 or so receives heavy assistance from Japan.
- The Philippines becomes socialist in 1939 after a long war of independence against the USA. A short war between America and Japan settles this matter with Japan as the victor.
- No major wars in Western Europe until the late 40s, when France and a collection of allied states starts a WW1-like conflict with the German empire. About 30 million dead.
- Holland is one of the countries that happens to have been taken and retaken several times in the course of said war. It loses about a third to a half of its population.
Basically, I need some names, ideas, anything you think might be good for me to know before I start factoring Red Indonesia into the rest of the TL plan. Thanks.