From what he's saying it sounds like to me that he's jumping straight into the murders on the morning of October 5th for episode 7. This sounds like Something Bernkastel would do I really don't see her as preparing a plot, but rather just jumping head first into things. It would be be nice to get some back story on the other characters like Rudolf, but I'm not expecting too much.

If what I'm thinking is right though this should make 7 one of the shortest scenarios in the core arcs.

So, I'm a newcomer to AS, but I've been discussing a lot of Umineko stuff on other forums until now. I see that Shkanontrice is generally accepted here, and that theory's never sat well with me. I feel like it goes against Ryuukishi's themes of love, and just feels too easy. It reminds me of the Beatroll in Episode 3. Last time Ryuukishi spoon-fed us heavy-handed character development, it was an elaborate act. (of course, only sort of...but whatever.)

In response, I posit a different theory.

Shannon is Culprit A. Genji is her accomplice. She is responsible for Games 1, 2, and 4. Kyrie (and Rudolf) is Culprit B, and is responsible for Games 3 and 4.







I have stuff to do, but I'll tackle 3 and 4 later.

Thoughts? Opinions? Red text that blows my theory up?

@Renall:

I always thought that George was going back to either hide or uncover evidence. Especially with Shannon's body. I can accept that he is also upset about Shannon dying however.

@Seagull:
That's a very good list. Can we compile one for the most likely writers? Isn't it Kyrie, Hideyoshi and George only? If we assume that Kyrie and Hideyoshi are really dead, isn't the most probable person George?

Ok, if it is George, then that shortens the receiver list by one. I might remove Kyrie on the assumption that she really is dead. Wouldn't the message be for Jessica then? Or Nanjo... but I keep getting the feeling Nanjo doesn't have much to do with masterminding the fakery.

This is because I'm guessing that George and Jessica have both been recruited to help with the Beatrice faction and George is throwing that back at them, in defiance. This doesn't explain who killed him though, which is a problem.


However, if the killer has a pen chance for writing numbers like this we'd see them more often, I think. Right?

Given the scene at the end of EP5 and Battler's attitude towards Beatrice in the beginning of EP6, I find it hard to believe that it was all an elaborate act. Yes, meta-Beatrice was being disingenuous, but I think she acted the way piece-Beatrice would have (and, in fact, did).

The real troll was her turnaround at the end. That is nearly impossible for her character after EP5.

Minor or not minor observation depending on how nitpicky is the reader supposed to be with these books. In the very end of Ep1, when Natsuhi duels Beatrice...

Natsuhi readies the rifle and glares.
The witch raises her golden staff and laughs.

That looked out of place to me, as nowhere Meta-Beatrice and her ilk are actually depicted using a staff if my memory serves me right -- her wand is a long golden pipe (and I want some of what she's smoking). MARIA has a staff and EVA does, but other witches do not seem to use a staff, not even Virgilia does. I thought it might be a mistranslation, but if I'm using the dictionary properly, the kanji used, 杖 does indeed mean 'staff' or at least a walking stick. Certainly not a pipe.

And I'm pretty sure it's the metaphor for a gun in this case, in case of EVA, and possibly even in case of MARIA...

According to the normal reading order, the tea party is right afterwards and Beatrice shows up normally for the first time and is not seen wielding a staff or ever referred to having one.

Is that a hint?

Correction: Suit-Beatrice does have a staff on her sprite, as if hidden under her left hand. Other variations do not.

I didn't say it ALL was, but she definitely was exaggerating her deredere side as an ulterior motive to maybe get Battler to submit. She just decided at the last minute to go back on it, because it hit too far at home and couldn't let herself trick him like that, so she came clean to him. The fact that she was being truthful while she trolled was too much for her.

This doesn't deny the premise of my distaste with Shkanon. It's TOO easy. Ryuukishi doesn't just state things out there like that. If it was Shkanon, he wouldn't have needed to make the love duel so blatantly Shkanon-y. He loves to make us think one thing before subverting it. He does it once an episode, even. He told us after he wrote Higurashi Kai that he was dissatisfied with the way he just "told everyone the answer like that." So I can't see Shkanon being the answer.

And anyway, aside from the closed room of Episode 6, which I haven't examined yet, not a single mystery requires Shkanon to be solved. In fact, it makes several of them much harder to explain.

Plus, it still destroys his theme of love. Shkanon can't have a true romance with Jessica because there's absolutely no way Jessica wouldn't know about it, and she's not the lesbian type. >_>

Here are some problems I found.

Pretty much. There's two groups: the people in the guesthouse and the people in the mansion.

I guess we could rule out Battler anyway considering he's the detective.
Battler should have been watching Jessica the whole time, too.
Eva was set up as the culprit in EP3, like a red herring, so I doubt she did it.
Then there's Nanjo. Theoretically, he could open the window, climb out with George, run all the way to the mansion, kill him, write the numbers, run all the way back, climb into the window, and go inside his room. But it would be difficult for him considering his age. He even says it himself when Battler suspects him.

So that means only Kyrie, Hideyoshi, and George are left. Something interesting I just noticed: all of their TIPS are really important to this mystery.
"How careless, he was still living..."
"The stomach isn't a very lethal spot."
"In exchange for his soul, the witch gave 8 numbers
07151129
If you say it, a small Golden Land will be opened."

Assuming George was the recipient of the message, that leaves only Kyrie and Hideyoshi. That would mean the writer would be a person who faked their death. And someone had to fake their death to kill Nanjo.
Which is the most likely person to kill Nanjo: Kyrie or Hideyoshi?

In game one it's possible Kanon is saved by Nanjo and they cover it up.

game two I don't know where your getting the thing about treating him. Kanon died in Jessica's room after all.

The way I've been looking at that was that Kumasawa and Nanjo faked their deaths. Gohda and Shannon blamed Kanon instead of Beatrice because Rosa would've found it ridiculous if they said a witch did it.

Later somebody made marks on Natsuhi's door, George's group rekilled Kumasawa and Nanjo out of fear with a katana or a hatchet. Gohda in shock attacked George who stabbed Gohda in the chest with a letter opener in self defense. Somehow Shannon was hit in the head pretty hard so I think it was George who did it since it's the same kind of wound Jessica has in episode 4. Let's put aside if it was intentional or not.

George was staked in a less than lethal spot in that game and we're not even given a red saying he died.

why do you assume the one from hideyoshi's tips refer to hideyoshi?
"how careless he was still living..."
that's too vague, what if kanon wasn't really dead and sniped him?

also i don't know spit about japanese but i know that there are some neutral pronouns, so my question is, does it really specifies it as a "he"?

I have a random question from something i read on the umineko wikipedia page (yeah i know <_<). It said under shannons lil bio thing that every year she would ask about battler. Does anyone know if and where this was mentioned?

...Because they're his TIPS? I don't think there's any reason to believe it's not referring to Hideyoshi.

And 6 people: Kinzo, Genji, Shannon, Kanon, Gohda, and Kumasawa are dead.

As for Japanese neutral pronouns, my guess is as good as yours.

so going through EP3 for the first time, wondering how to solve the closed room case, my latest train of thought made me think that maybe who ever killed the 6 took the one master key with him/her after killing the last person, and faked it being found on the person...

it was never mentioned WHO found the key on the person, so who ever was the last one to be placed into his/her closed room had their key taken and locked from the outside and then that person when (s)he searched the dead body planted the key....


but then again, this probably was mentioned LONG ago, but I have the problem of when I get an idea stuck in my head, I need to get it off or it won't go away D:

I believe that was once brought up in-game, even. It's entirely possible, but here's the problem: If someone did that, it was probably an adult. If it was one of the adults, it's hard to imagine that all of the adults weren't involved. If the adults were all involved, why? The only scenario I could even see for them killing the victims is self-defense; otherwise, their objectives are simply too at odds with one another.

I didn't say he was treated. I said he was dead and Shannon THOUGHT he could be. That's why she moved the corpse.

Dammit. You're probably right. I wanted to explain this without it...because I hate the idea of it, but here's some blue for you.

Upon realizing that the promise would never be fulfulled, Shannon created a second personality modeled after the Witch of the Forest, Beatrice. This personality shielded her from Natsuhi's abuse and from her own sadness. Shannon moved on from Battler's broken promise and eventually stopped caring, but "Beatrice" never did. This Beatrice, being a personality and not an actual human being, does not count towards the total persons on the Island. However, she is a distinct entity in the Meta-World.





Alright. I accept your premise that Kyrie has no idea that Battler was her child. How's this then?

Kyrie was coerced by the Sumadera family to commit the murders and install Battler as the head of the family. Rudolf was promised all the money he could possibly need in return for aiding Kyrie. The Sumaderas knew that Battler was Kyrie's child, but they do not tell her. Kyrie does not want to kill if she can avoid it, however, and attempts to extort the money from Krauss instead first. When this fails, she falls back on the plan. She does feel some guilt, so she has the Sumadera family arrange the money that Ange discovers.



Also, Piece Beatrice in Episode 4 is not Shannon, but Jessica. She finds out about Shannon's murder spree and promises her that she can get Battler to admit he still loves Shannon. Battler doesn't. She then attempts to get him to remember his promise. He doesn't. Jessica apologizes to Beatrice-Shannon, who then "puts Jessica to rest" on her bed as we see in the magic scene between the two Beatos.

I’ve finally gathered enough courage to post my theory. (I’ve had it since ep 3) It is another Shannon is the culprit. Which even if she isn’t the killer she is at least an accomplice in some eps.















I know there are some holes. But it makes some amount of sense too. And boy do I hate the Shkannon theory. She or He would have to be insane to create another persona that is a different gender. And then Shkannontirice makes her even more mental, so now she has (3 people in her head) Wait lets change that Shkannonticerika, lets says she is Shannon/Kanon/Beatrice/Erika/Bernkastel (XD she created 4 personas) And what the heck is the basis for Shkannon, she fell in love with Jessica too, so she created Kanon to take her feelings for Jessica? I hate Shkannon so much, and anyway ep 6 also closes its doors almost completely. Shannon, Hideyoshi, George, Nanjo, and Kumasawa are in the ‘next room’ And Battler said in his mind. “I would have no trouble saying, Kanon, Jessica, Krauss, Rudolf, and Genji are in the cousins room” Sure that was in his mind, but why in the world would they say that to himself, what is he trying to disillusion himself that Kanon exists too? Ryu07 stated that ep 2 and 6 have a vicious trap in them. He said that 3 and 5 also have a horrible trick in them too. (Or did I switch it, and the trap is in 3 and 5, and the trick in 2 and 6?) And Ryu07 was upset that some many people didn’t have a clue to anything close to the answer after ep 2 came out. That he changed ep 3 so it was much easier. Ep 3 was originally supposed to be called; Land of the Golden Witch. And then there is the thing about the reds about Kanon. No one can take his name. Only Kanon can be Kanon. Kanon died in Jessica’s room (Ep2) Kanon is dead (Ep 3 and his body was in the chapel with a gunshot wound in the chest supposedly) Kanon is dead. He was the first to die in Kyrie’s 5 person group. In other words he was the 9th victim. (Ep 4 Wasn’t he shot in the head according to the tips? Also shouldn’t his body been in Jessica’s room, after all he was killed there… And Battler went into her room in that ep, Unless I suppose his body was taken off the island before that day..) But wouldn’t this be too dirty of a trick, and after all ‘without love, it can’t be seen’ I’m going to believe in Ruy07 and in the love stories shown to us and believe Kanon also exists. It would have been such a dirty trick, Kinzo was enough, because he had so little involvement with the events that happened on the gameboards. But if Shkannon comes true, that can we really trust anything when When they cry 5 (the next series) comes around. And it honestly doesn’t answer any questions that were hard to answer. He didn’t die (ep1) his body was moved (ep2) nothing needs to be said about ep3 same with ep4. See the Shkannon theory only answers those two questions and just makes Shannon seems like a complete nutcase and we have no clues to point to her being like that. I will admit that ep6 seemed to shove Shkannon right at us. But it seems way to easy that way, it seems like it was pushed on us too much. And don’t give me that bull about it being close to the end of Umineko. Ryu07 said Umineko might have to go up to 11eps before people understand the way things are going.

It has to be either Shannon or Jessica. Though if you say Ryu07 doesn’t want to make a love triangle, it has to be either Kumasawa or Rosa (EW!! NO please!) Battler talking to Jessica in that scene sounds impossible; it seems extremely likely he is talking to Shannon. And for those who deny that he liked Shannon because he described a completely different personality than hers. No one is who is nervous about whether this person likes me, is going to say that they like that kind of person to that person directly. Battler was probably nervous and thinks that Shannon probably doesn’t like him. So he says he likes someone completely different than Shannon. It isn’t that strange.. I’ve seen it happen in real life. And Shannon remembering exactly what Battler said before he left 6 years ago is bizarre. I don’t even remember what my grandma told me right before she left for 5 months. And I’ve been told I have a great memory. You only remember things that had an impact on you, whether you are aware of the impact or not. And as far as I remember, that is the only thing that happened 6 years ago on Rokkenjima that we are told about.

ok, let me change what i said a little.
that line really refers to hideyoshi, now let's see what implies, for me all that i can think that makes sense is that he was careless too think that someone was dead and he killed him.

now if we think a little of the victims by now, the 6 persons fron the first twilight are completely ruled out by the red, rosa had her medula oblongata pierced, that's instant death, maria was strangulated, even if you think that she wasn't really dead, it's difficult to think that she killed someone, rudolf was shot in the head, that's also pretty lethal.

so the only one left that could fit here is kyrie( that's why i asked about the pronoun), and fortunetely, we know that the stomach isn't a lethal spot, even in the worst case scenario, i think she could still have from 10 to 15 minutes while if it wasn't a really big deal she could survive for a day or two.

now if we think that it means that he wasn't really dead, i find it pretty odd the way it's said.

i posted a theory about the modus operandi of the culprit in the 1-4 ep some pages ago, while i made ep 1-2 really half-assed i'm very confident of my deductions from ep 3-4 so i wonder if you could give it a try, who knows maybe an interesting thought could derive from that.

Well, for EP1, you have to explain how Jessica placed the letter inside Kinzo's study when she went to read the epitaph and after that Natsuhi said that at that time there was no letter on the table.

Then you have to provide reason why Jessica wanted to kill Kanon. And for what reason Gohda would help her in EP2 but not in other EP.

In EP3, it was really hard for George to kill Nanjo as his eyes were open when he was dead and Battler saw it.

You did not tell us what killed Battler in the end of EP4.

For EP5, well the bodies were not moved after death, so how did Nanjo kill them all? And why did he have to kill the family at all?

In EP6, who was Erika then?