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It starts raining around 3:00, IIRC.
The timing of the typhoon is critical. If it had come by 6 hours earlier, then they wouldn't have been able to get to the island. If it had come by 18 hours later, it wouldn't have arrived until after everyone left.
I don't think you can predict the movement of a typhoon that precisely more than, say, a week in advance. It's going to take far more than a week to write both manuscripts.
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