Thread: Cyprus resists?
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Old 2013-03-23, 16:23   Link #43
AmeNoJaku
Franco's Phalanx is next!
 
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Little England, Europe and Asia
For sources I often follow: BBC, Spiegel, Mond, and in this case Vima (center-right) plus some interviews from American economist from NY Times (I think). What you are writing is the story sold domestically in Germany by the conservatives, but started from the social-democrats. I see bits and pieces of it in Spiegel, but it is more critically presented then the rest of the media.

Also I don't support that Cyprus or any other country in financial trouble is not to blame for them, quite the opposite. But should I write my whole take in the matter will take forever, and I am more concerned with Europe and its people as a whole with how policies manifest in each crisis.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mentar View Post
1) Creditors of the Bank of Cyprus exceeding 100k Euro deposit lose 20% of their deposits flat. Anyone surprised that this is the bank where most clients are foreigners (mostly Russian and British)?
That's half the truth, you are forgetting Greeks (who after Germany, their second most popular destination for their deposits was Cyprus) when their bonds were cut. And the majority of local medium to large size companies, like construction, communication, etc.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mentar View Post
2) Creditors of the Bank Laiki above 100k Euro are in danger, because this bank will be split up and partially liquidated (bankruptcy). Here we'll see what happens.
That was what Cyprus proposed, but I read new rumors about the troika rejected both, and now asked for both banks to merge and split assets into "good" and "bad"

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mentar View Post
3) Creditors of the other Cypriotic banks above 100k Euro deposit lose 4% of their money flat
That wasn't enough, ECB calculated that if all bank accounts in all banks above 100k are levied for 15-16% the target 6 billion can be reached, which was the starting point of the negotiation last week, since Cyprus had no real proposition to counter Germany's 40% above 100k.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mentar View Post
4) Creditors below 100k Euro deposit are safe. No losses, the state guarantees for them regardless of the bank (which is EU law anyway)
The state guarantee is a joke, remember that liquidity for the banks comes through ELA, therefore european taxpayers (40% workers in Germany, not only Germans... let's not forget that despite other criticism, that country is open to all taxpayers, not only their capitals). Also I haven't seen a version of the rescue plan yet without some kind of limit in daily or monthly transactions (about 10k the largest I can recall).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mentar View Post
5) The EU will throw Cyprus a lifeline to make sure that the state doesn't go into default
That's not true, should they decided (against all reason, IMO) to remain in euro and defaulting, ECB made clear that will not help in any way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mentar View Post
All of this could have been reasonably worked out without the nationalistic riots before. Sheesh.
There have been no riots yet, only demonstration...

It would be better to understand the context here. Germany emerged from the destruction of WWII with reparation to everyone except the four occupying forfeited, occupation loans still serviced, supported both politically and financially to unify East Germany. On the other hand, Cyprus was occupied by England until '60, ruled by a theocrat until Greek fascist deposed, and invaded by Turkey... despite that managed to build up an economy following Luxembourg's model, attracting foreign capital through better then standard returns, this is also the case with other countries like Luxembourg, Malta (within the euro), Switzerland, Monaco, Lichtenstein, Latvia (in Europe), and cities with special laws (like London).

Voters in all countries have neither the benefit nor desire to discuss such matters even at a superficial depth we do here, let alone none of us has access to unbiased facts (judging how polarized leaks are, depending on sources). I would also be rather reluctant to call the communist party of Cyprus (main opposition to the rescue plan supporting, if not instigating the demonstration) nationalistic, being also the only party still cooperating with their turkish cypriots on the occupied zone. Finally, the main imagery used is similar to Greece, anti-fascist, since this is how they understand (with significant aid from media) German policy.

Anyway, look, I understand that each government wants to push a different story to the press, but it would be wise to filter out a little what is presented... in the case of Greece, German media changed black to white in less than a month last year. I do not support one side or the other, I am trying to make it pretty clear that both Cyprus and Germany have very short-sighted goals, and basically play poker with the lives of all europeans at stake.
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