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Originally Posted by Sugetsu
You also have to remember that Russia's reason to start the war (although dumb reasons by all accounts) were not unprovoked. Honestly I don't care who is to blame at this point, but what I find completely unsettling is the fact that western nations display no signs in attempting to de-escalate this conflict with a NUCLEAR SUPERPOWER. Even if the chances of nuclear war have only increased by 2% that's still way too high!
Meanwhile, all I hear from both sides is attempts to paint the opposite side as evil so that support for the war continues in one way or another. This is utter insanity. We are playing a VERY dangerous game here, and if Ukraine joins NATO in coming days then get ready for World War 3.
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Russia might have had some vaguely understandable geopolitical motivations for starting the war (some nominal concern over the NATO block, dreams of Russian Empire, etc). But the problem is that right now *continuing* the war is a very irrational move for Russia as a whole. Curbing further NATO expansion has failed. Being able to bring Ukraine into Russia as an intact and docile territory has failed. Russia getting a "win" in Ukraine doesn't actually get them anything. Continuing the war is irrational for Russia as a geopolitical entity.
Russia continuing the war at this point is almost entirely based on preserving the reputation of Putin and revisionist hawks in the Kremlin. When they saber rattle nukes it's not because Russia itself is in danger of being nuked or invaded if they lose the war. It's that those men (who fancy themselves 'ard men) fear losing power if they are blamed for losing the war...which ya know, they are at fault of given all their fuckups.
So again, what does de-escalation mean when Russia itself is under no immediate military threat from NATO? That Ukraine has to give up it's entirely rational and reasonable to desire to liberate its land and millions of its people that Russia has just annexed? So Putin and his other hardliners can turn to their people and say "see? I'm not a fuck up. Nuclear black mail works!"
Cause I should note. The west already left Ukraine out to dry somewhat in the name of not provoking nuclear war with Russia by making clear we'd not conduct a direct military intervention, even when we thought Ukraine would get conquered in a week. In that sense the increased threat of nuclear war does not come from NATO, but from Russia's own catastrophic political and military failures. How far should Ukraine compromise their own country away to compensate for the failures of Russia's military and political leaders?