Quote:
Originally Posted by totoum
So for exemple if at the start of a year if the number of desks is right and a transfer student comes in september,there's a 0% chance that student would be the extra?
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No. He has the same probability as any other student.
It's a simple two case scenario:
Every year the number of students and the number of seats don't add up due to a late transfer, either,
Case 1 - The incoming transfer student is the extra, or,
Case 2 - The incoming transfer student isn't the extra. Thus there was already an extra among the rest of the students at the start of schoolyear.
The probability for any student, including the incoming transfer, being the extra is the same. And that would be 1 over the number of students in the class.
However, that also means that the probability that the incoming transfer would be the extra is very low compared to the probability that the extra was already in the class. But hey, 1 vs 29 isn't anywhere near a ridiculous bet. Gamblers win with much worse
