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Originally Posted by Ssol
However, episode 1 only mentions the message that was found a few years later. Why would Ryukishi not state that a bottle that was found on the day of the incident for the endroll in episode 1? If the messages in bottles were really sent before the incident then why do have a difference between the time the first bottle is discovered episode 1 and the time episode 3's first bottle is discovered? The only thing that changes between the games is what happens during and after October 4-5 not what happens before. If the bottles were sent before the time the game begins then they should be recovered at the same time since the recovery occurs completely outside the game.
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Since the bottles were released into the ocean, the point and location where they might wash up is random. They may not wash up at all (which I personally assume is the reason that there are so many of them - the assumption is that several will be lost). Given the unpredictable nature of ocean currents, I'm not particularly surprised about the differences in timing.
I would consider the letter-writer knowing that Battler
would be there relatively unsuspicious. There would be a limited amount of time that this could be known, but I think it would have had to be announced a reasonable amount of time before October 4th, because it would be impolite to the hosts to have someone there that had not been planned for. I feel that knowing that Ange would not be there is the much more suspicious point. Still, very early on the 4th this seems to be common knowledge. I assume that on the 3rd or perhaps even the 2nd, the fact that Ange would not be arriving would be known to most. The messages in a bottle would have to be changed and Ange would need to get a money letter, but substituting someone else's to give her one (our favorite Sumadera maybe?) might accomplish the latter, and writing the message bottles wouldn't take TOO long. It depends on who we want to suspect here and what we want to accuse them of.
I don't think we can be sure enough to state it in red that
the letter-writer him-or-herself was on Niijima on October 3rd. It could easily have been an accomplice. It's very likely, though.
It's interesting about the letter-writer not seeming to know that Kinzo is dead if the messages describe episodes one and two. (Though, could someone please point me in the direction of the scene where Ange relates the contents of the bottle messages and they actually sound like the first two episodes? I'm sure it's just somewhere blindingly obvious since everyone seems to think that's what happened, but I can't remember anything like that and searching the script for key words is getting me nowhere.) However, episodes one and two do contain a lot of clear hints in that direction (for example, in episode two,
no one ever seems to worry about Kinzo's safety, and even as everyone becomes more paranoid, no one accuses Kinzo of running around being the killer, even though that would be a completely valid guess if no one's seen the body, which does not get burned or ever show up, and you're assuming that only dead people are eliminated from suspicion...
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo
This kind of reasoning doesn't work. It was said that the two letters greatly differ in the way they describe the events. So your assumption that their purpose was to give an accurate description of the events that happened on October 4 and 5 is wrong. There is also the ending to consider. The writer who claims to be Maria is asking the reader to find the truth, which is a blatant confession that the story she told is fake.
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I never said that the point was to be accurate, I said the point was to tell a witch-oriented version of the events. The reason you'd want this to be relatively accurate at least for things like who walked on to the island and who walked off is so that it will be seen as interesting and closely examined. They mentioned that since it was inaccurate, it had low credibility to begin with - no one was interested. You have to have an interested audience for your plea to "find the truth" to be heard. Still, it reminds me a little bit of what meta-Beato is doing. Something in her games is trying to get Battler to recognize something, and she's dropping as many hints as she can... is that what the letters in bottles are for? Coming as close to giving the information out as possible without actually saying it?