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Old 2013-01-25, 17:06   Link #25944
SeijiSensei
AS Oji-kun
 
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Age: 74
Looks like China is wearing its "good-cop" hat today.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news...-1226562271548

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/26/wo...pan-envoy.html

The North Koreans? Not so much.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/26/wo...uth-korea.html

As for the Electoral College, I did a quick analysis in response to a question by a college classmate about whether choosing Presidential electors by Congressional district, rather than winner-take-all at the state level, would have changed the outcomes of any Presidential election other than 2012. The answer is no.

The Constitution allocates each state a number of Electoral Votes equal to the sum of its two senators and the number of members in its delegation to the House of Representatives. Because the Republicans win a lot of small states like Wyoming, the margin between the candidates in the 100 seats allocated from the Senate is small. In 2012 Obama won 27 states, thus gaining 54 EV compared to Romney's 46. The margin of victory in the House is always much bigger than that. In 2004 and 2012 the Republicans won by a margin of about thirty seats; in 2008 the Democrats won by a margin of nearly ninety. So even if we allocated EV using the method now in effect in Maine and Nebraska, and advocated by Republicans in states like Virginia and Pennsylvania, it would have little effect on the outcome in the Electoral College, where margins in the hundreds of EVs are quite common.

The Constitution is clear on this matter; states can choose their electors however they want. No one has challenged Maine or Nebraska for choosing electors by Congressional district. As a practical matter, though, I prefer winner-take-all because it insulates the Presidential contest from the effects of gerrymandering in the drawing of House district lines. I estimate the Republicans have a 10-12 seat "bulwark" in the House resulting from gerrymanders after the 2010 Census. To reward this behavior with a 10-12 EV advantage in the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is unfair. I also think that electing someone who wins a minority of the popular vote as President, as would have happened in 2012 if all states used the Congressional-district method, undermines the legitimacy of the electoral system overall. One positive effect moving to the district method might provide is broadening the competition for President out beyond the dozen or so "swing states" that now largely determine the outcome of Presidential elections.

Last edited by SeijiSensei; 2013-01-25 at 17:18.
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