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I think that there is a good chance for Karada to convince Hiro in Ep4 of what happened. The problem is it requires her to be rational and realize she has to just keep rattling off every little thing they've ever done together -- so much that Hiro realizes she couldn't have just talked with Karada to get the info -- but really IS Karada. AND it requires that Hiro stick around long enough to listen to all of it.
Part of the problem so far is that Shouko has been sending mixed messages to Hiro. One minute she's talking about her "older sister" and saying she called on the phone, etc. The next she's claiming to actually BE Shouko, and the amount of info given isn't more than she could have heard "Shouko" complaining about over the last 4 years.
The real hope with Karada is that it's only been a couple days now, so there's no way that she could have told her entire "life story" to someone else to try to fake this situation. Thats why Hiro may be more likely to listen -- and of course adult Karada still is the spitten image of her younger self ;p
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