[chronotrig]

Ah, thank you.

Spoiler for size:

- It is impossible for someone to survive in the middle of an ocean during a typhoon, especially in the cold waters of October
Erika arrived on the island before the typhoon. The "Erika" on the boat was either a fake or a person whose name Erika borrowed. 10 tons of gold are at stake, so such measures are not unreasonable.
- It was impossible for Erika to predict the murders with such a certainty
Erika did not predict the murders. She tried to commit them and frame Battler, but the bodies were removed before she got there. By framing Battler, she would become the sole discoverer of the gold. 10 tons of gold are at stake, so such measures are not unreasonable.
- It was impossible for Erika to refute the existence of secret passages
We're talking game board here, right? It's possible for anyone to say that passages don't exist. That doesn't mean they're right or wrong.
- It was impossible for Eva to accept the plan of a perfect stranger
Furudo Erika is after the 10 tons of gold. Since she has no apparent connection to the family, this is not at all unbelievable. All Eva really wants is to inherit the title. They are the perfect team after Erika is named as one of the discoverers.
- It was impossible for Erika to claim so seriously that she's a detective unless she's completely insane.
Furudo Erika is trying to frame Battler and take the credit for catching him. If so, it would be more strange for her not to take the role of detective.
- It is impossible for a person to climb barehanded to the second floor of an house while it is raining.
Without knowledge of the details of the guesthouse's structure, you cannot prove this. 10 tons of gold are at stake, so people taking extreme measures cannot be used as a counter-argument except for physical impossibility or extreme improbability. Also, depending on the time she did this, she may have had a lot of time at her disposal.
- there doesn't seem to be a realistic time span when Erika could have placed all those seals around the guesthouse.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe there's a limit on the start time for this. In other words, she could have sealed the windows before leaving with Battler for the Golden Land. If she was trying to frame Battler, this is perfectly reasonable.
- It is impossible that the whole Ushiromiya family let a perfect stranger boss around
Some of those scenes are obviously falsehoods, or else full meta world scenes. However, it's possible that Erika has some pull with certain members of the family. A connection with Eva has already been proposed. By playing the siblings off each other, she could probably get some freedom to move about. Also, she has the double threat of being both a discoverer of the gold and an outsider. If she chose to blab about all this later on, she could cause some real trouble for the other family members. She has more than enough leeway for blackmail and extortion.
- It is impossible that Battler let Erika do all her insensitive inspections, and even less that a mysterious force prevented him to do so
Erika is trying to frame Battler, so she did whatever she could to prevent him knowing about it.
- It is impossible that Erika was allowed to get inside Kinzo's room, even less possible that they let her take the chemical inside and use them as if it was her own house.
- It is impossible that Erika could use that stuff to make scientific analysis in CSI style within that small allotted time.
For the above 2, I'd need to re-read the game more closely, since I haven't re-checked that part for a while. However, if Erika had some inside information (which she probably did, if she solved the epitaph), then she might have researched and planned it beforehand. Also, she may have had help from the real culprit, whoever that is.
- Because of the above points It was impossible for Erika to prove that Genji wasn't the culprit of the cousin's room murder
On the game board, you don't need absolute proof. This argument is only relevant for the meta world.
- It is extremely hard for a person to stay awake the whole night while doing nothing or focusing on something that gives no reaction (more than 90% of people would fail this test), even more improbable if that person is heavily fatigued.
Heh, I've pulled an all-nighter for a math midterm. People can do a lot when you have 10 tons of gold at stake. Since she didn't swim to the island, she might have had a weeks worth of sleep for all we know.
- It was impossible for Erika to prove that Nanjo and Kumasawa didn't left their room from 3 AM until morning
- It was impossible for Erika to prove Kinzo wasn't the culprit
- It was impossible for Erika to prove Krauss wasn't the culprit
- More importantly it was impossible for Erika to prove she wasn't the culprit
For the above four, as with Genji, it is not necessary for Erika to prove things absolutely on the game board.
- Because of all the above, it was impossible for everyone to accept Erika's accusations, and even less possible for Battler to stay silent
We don't see how Erika makes her argument on the game board. You cannot argue that meta-Erika's arguments must follow board Erika's arguments...because the same did not always happen for meta-Battler (like There are only 5 master keys and EP3's first closed room).
- It was impossible for Erika to invoke bernkastel's name inside the gameboard
Probably, though Erika might be Bern's vessel and therefore know about a fictional character called Bernkastel. Otherwise, this is just a minor fantasy scene. Unless it was actually Meta-Erika.
- it goes without saying but every metaworld scene, magic event, dead persons shown alive, magic entity talking to real person and the likes aren't possible in the real world, and those alone are more than half episode5.
You are confusing meta world scenes with falsehoods. Obviously any scene with meta-Battler in it is false, but that's because it doesn't even take place on the game board, right? Any scene that is not viewed by a surviving character on the game board can fall under this category. Like Battler said when he first used the cat box argument "I don't see any spears or shields anymore".

To further justify my last point, any scene that is obviously fake does not help you for your argument. You claimed you have "no problem" with it if someone tells you that it's a fictional story. Therefore, any scenes we know are false are simply not counted in the reasoning portion of the game, and can't really be complained about.

For example, seeing ghost Kinzo appear in EP5 should never impair your ability to reason. We know he's dead, so the only explanation is that he's a figment of Natsuhi's imagination.

I'm not going to say that all or even most of the above guesses are right, but it's nowhere near as hopeless as you're making it out to be. If you're trying to say that we should all stop thinking about possible solutions now, I have to disagree.

Spoiler for size:

I still think this is overly complicated and incomplete.

Wait a second, you're willing to accept 9 Knox rules to explain one small facet of the game, but 5 rules to explain the game itself is overly complicated?
We already have 3 different colors of text. Just how simple to you expect the game to be?

From the way you describe it... it looks that you give to Beatrice even more power than that of Bernkastel in Higurashi. She couldn't even chose the kakera there, and with your theory Beatrice can even peel off the kakera she doesn't like through rules and red text.

Cat box. We already know Beatrice can't control things outside of Rokkenjima. Whereas Bernkastel could flit between entire worlds, Beatrice can only exist in and effect a small area in space and time, and furthermore, it's a place that can't be easily observed, meaning the specific events that occur there count for very little.

I think there's a paradox in the fact that being the kakera infinite no matter how many times you peel them off, they will never get to one. Actually they will remain infinite no matter what. From the way the kakera are described you can't possibly enclose them because they have also infinite dimensions. The rules, the red and gold can only create boundaries at best. And in the end you still have an infinite number of Kakera whom Beatrice can choose from.

Ah, I'm glad you brought this point up. This is actually one of the strongest bits of support my argument has. At the end of the game, Battler proposes one truth and Erika proposes another. The story makes it pretty clear that whoever wins the argument will have their version become the truth. In other words, selecting a single kakera from the remaining possible ones depends on the players from both sides.

To put it simply, this is the whole point of the "game" part of the game, and the only explanation I can see which gives the game any real meaning.

Edit: I just realized that with your theory, the red text does not always tell the truth. If that's the case, there's almost no point in continuing this series...