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As I always say, rather than expecting every generation of consoles to go exactly like the previous, it's smart to look at why a particular console sold well or didn't. In the case of the Cube, it was primarily a lack of support.
Then, why the lack of support? Not at all because the PSX sold better than the N64, developers don't work entirely that way, which is why the Gamecube had much stronger support when it launched. No, the reason was that the PS2 was already in so many homes when the Cube was just launching. Sony maintained that lead for the first year or two of the Cube, and hasn't let up. Developers see that, and make their games for the console that can potentially sell the most copies.
Sony does not have that immeadiate advantage this time around. Microsoft does, but it's hampered by Japanese developers' unwillingness to support an American console.
It will be interesting to see how developer support falls upon the three consoles this time around. Sony has name recognition, for the majority of the current gaming market, the PSX and the PS2 were their first consoles. A lot of people do expect the PS3 to have the best developer support, so this could become a self-fullfilling prophecy...developers go where the most consoles are sold. Then again, there's that $600 price tag. Even staunch Sony fans who say they'll only get the PS3 have been known to add, "Well, I'll wait until the price drops down." If too many do, then they'll find when the price has dropped, so has developer support. Developers will leave a console that shows a weak first year. Still, there is that name recognition, and one should not underestimate brand loyalty. A Sony exec once boasted that they could sell 5 million units at $600 a pop with no games to show for it...and I suspect he may be right.
Microsoft has the current largest install base, and plenty of American developer support. They're also finally getting some great games, like Chromehounds and 99 Knights. Still, while Japanese support is stronger than it was with their first Xbox, the 360 isn't selling well at all in Japan, so what support they have over there will likely diminish over time if sales do not pick up. There's also the price. The 360 is a pricey machine, and if someone is going to spend that kind of cash, would they rather get a 360 now or wait and spend a hundred or so more on a PS3?
Nintendo is coming in from third place in overall sales, though the hype is big in Japan for the Wii, especially as the PS3's high price has been settled at something higher than many expected, and most will be willing to pay. If Nintendo manages a successful first year or two in Japan, expect developer support to grow for them in a big way. If they only keep their current standing...well, expect the rest of the generation to go the same as well. Expect Nintendo to at least do as well as always.
Finally, it's unfair to say that Microsoft and Sony didn't make any profit. That's only really true of Microsoft, who continues to bleed red ink on their console endeavours. Sony began pulling in a profit on the PS2 a year or two ago. Once they cleared their initial investment costs, they began to rake it in with the PS2.
With the PS3, it's unclear if the high price is due to the technology involved actually being so much better than the competition, or if Sony is unable to sell at a large loss this time, as they did with the PS2. They can no longer lean on their electronics departments, as that particular branch of the Sony empire is not doing so hot (better, recently, but still). So, the PS3 might not see quite as long a period of loss as the PS2, if it does well. We'll see though. Things might turn out very different than I imagine.
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