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Ryukishi confirmed that Umineko has some rules like Higurashi does, but understanding these rules are a bit more difficult because we don't know everything that happens - only what we're shown.
And no, Kinzo is definietly dead before the game begins. Takano technically went missing, rather than dead in Higurashi. But before Beatrice's game starts Kinzo is already dead and he can't be a killer that way. The person pretending to be him can, but Beatrice also stated there were no more than 17 people on the island so if someone was impersonating him it would still be one of the 17 living people.
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