[Bladezer]

Originally Posted by cedec0

While we wait, why doesn't everyone post their predicted order in which the four schools in semi-final will finish (first place, second place, etc...). Also a short (or long in my case) explanation why.

I will go first:

1st place = Achiga
2cd place = Senriyama
3rd place = Shindouji
4th place = Shiraitodai


Reasoning:

1) Achiga will reach the finals. There are tons of reasons for this: they are the main characters of the side story, the way the last chapter ended with Shizu about to kick some ass, etc... (read my previous posts for more reasons).

;--------------------------------

2) Shindouji can't be allowed (for plot reasons) to reach the finals because:

A) It would undermine the epic Saki VS Teru showdown that will happen in the individuals.

Consider what happened in the vanguard round of the semi-finals. All three players worked together to stop Teru, and two of them went so far as doing "heroic sacrifices" (Toki overusing her powers until she ended up in the hospital and Kuro discarding a dora). Despite all this, Teru still managed to rack up over 90,000 points, and she did this without showing all of her abilities.

So the stage for the Saki VS Teru showdown has now been perfectly set in the semi-finals, and having Teru participate in the finals would undermine this. First, Teru would undoubtedly go all-out in the finals, revealing all of her yet-unseen abilities, removing the aura of mystery surounding her right now. Second, (unless she send TWO opponents to the hospital) there is no way that Teru can top her performance in the semi-finals, and so her performance would be weaker in the finals (by comparison) making her seem like less of a monster. For these two reasons having Teru reach the finals would undermine the epic fight Saki VS Teru showdown, which is why it is unlikely to happen.

B) Shindouji reaching the finals would mean Kuro (and Yuuki) losing horribly in the vanguard round, which would be problematic.

Both Kuro and yuuki are weaker than Saki and would be crushed by Teru in the finals. This is problematic becuase Kuro has now sufferred two horrible loses in a row (in the quarter finals and semi-finals), and having it happan three times in a row would be too much (it would be boring and pathetic). Meanwhile, Yuuki lost in the quarter-finals, and (with the way things are going ) she is also going to reach the finals with two straight loses. Since the stage for the Saki VS Teru showdown has already been set by the semi-finals, Teru's massacre of Kuro and Yuuki in finals would be painful, repetitive, and serve no purpose.

C) Saki meanting Teru in the finals would akward (and be bad writing).

Saki has made a big deal of avoiding meeting Teru because she wants talk to her sister "through mahjong". If Shindouji reaches the finals, Saki/Teru meeting would be unavoidable, and this would mean a huge distract from the finals with no possible resolution (Teru and Saki wouldn't be playing Mahjong against each other).

But you see for the Saki/Teru showdown we have the possibility to finally reveal what happened to the 3rd mysterious girl. And by revealing everything about Saki and Teru's abilities and play styles leaves there to be more focused on the game

You are forgetting that Yuuki's skill is being recognized by not only Rinkai's coach and Satoha (who's only in 3rd because Teru, and Kei is seen as dangerous monster. As well that Yuuki is holding her ground against Satoha, meaning she will be able to fight Teru on even footing. There's also Harue now training Kuri in basically being able to play without her dora, as well that Kuro will get a much needed upgrade to her ability. Also I see all of Achiga about to receive a massive power up. Effectively they made it to the finals, meaning that its time for them to show Harue that you can get by without ridiculous hack abilities and just have decent skill or average abilities. I also the possibility of Kuro' starting hand having all 8 dora in it at the start.

Originally Posted by cedec0

D) The performance of Shindouji's players

With the exception of Teru, shindouji's players have had disapointing results in the semi-finals (they lost the 90,000 points that Teru gained). If Senriyama was going to make the finals, the performance of ALL of shindouji's players would have been more impressive (to keep anticipation up). For comparison, look at Senriyama performance in the quarter-finals: that is how a team that is going to next round looks like.

In a series that is as well-writen as Saki/Achiga-hen, I can't believe that a team that was as poorly showcased as Senriyama would make it to the finals. It would be extremely poor writing.

I don't find any of Shiraitodai's player's to be disappointing. Takami's style is to go for quick wins, allowing for her to get to her dealership quicker, so she can set up for harvest time, while also basically screwing over everybody who plays with big/slow hands, it also allows for to possibly do a direct yakuman hit get herself out of last.

Originally Posted by cedec0

3) About Senriyama second place finish.

Senriyama is the second ranked school. They were showcased as a powerful opponent in the quarter-finals (where they crushed Achiga). Also, Ryuuka has the ability least likely to be cancelled by Shizuno (it is a brand new ability and it is impossible to know when she is going to use it). In my opinion, they are the most likely to be the second team to make it to the finals. (for more reasons why Senriyama is morely than Shiraitodai to make the finals, read my previous posts).

If Senriyama go to the finals, there going to be curb-stomped by all the 3 other schools. Yuuki will basically rank it in the finals if Suzu is the one who goes with her, or Satoha will destroy all 3 players, remember no Teru or Kei means she can unleash hell, why? Because Satoha can stand up to Teru and Toki's foresight did jack against Teru, while Yuuki will only have the east round to dominate. Izumi will just be crushed because she is not good at defense, and will make stupid mistakes like underestimating Mako, something that shouldn't be done. Sera will have to not only deal with Ako, who would be able to use her dealer repeats without worry, effectively meaning if Ako was given the chance, she could play quickly and logically bust someone, as well as having to deal with Hiroe's traps or Hisa psychological tricks of winning with hell waits, which as I said before I see Sera playing into since she goes for logical big hands. Hiroko would not be able to find weak points on Nodoka or Arata, since both their styles are flexible, while Kinue is a defensive player who's good at it. While Ryuuka would have to deal with Saki, Shizu who could basically negate her ability, while Kyouko who fought 3 monsters and was able to basically go, 'screw your damn abilities, I'll show you my raw skills can deal with you 3 freaks'. And when we take into Ryuuka's foresight having a limited number, Saki who would probably override it, and Shizu's who can negate it, Senriyama would be stuck in 4th place for the entire game. where as Shindoji and Shiraitodai would not.

Originally Posted by cedec0

4) Why I put Shiraitodai in last place

If Shiraitodaiis going to lose (not make it to the finals) then they are probably going to lose spectacularly. That is my feeling

I want you to take note of this, Awai is still winning despite Ryuuka (who had to get a ability to stand on the same ground as Awai) and Himeko's abilities basically being hacks. Also I saw Awai as being perfectly willing to bust Himeko, when Shizu stopped.

Originally Posted by teja208

1st Achiga
2nd Senriyama
3rd Shiraitodai
4th Shindouji

Achiga is off course for plot reason, and similar to cedec0 I think her ability can tramp everyone on the table in the end. Koromo warned Saki about her. If she doesn't get first place, she will not be worth the warning. Saki will not see her as a threat.

As for why Shiraitodai shouldn't make it? Unlike cedec0 I don't think they are weak except for Seiko who loose huge chunk of points. I see them as powerful team as a whole, but when it comes to their abilities and characterization I don't think they have much left to show us in the finals.

In terms of abilities, we already seen them and we already expect the same thing in the finals except circumstances will not go against them much this time. If say for example Sumire overcome her tell, she will be able to target Achiga, but so what? It wouldn't make much of a difference from what happened to Izumi in the semi. Now comparing to other team like Senriyama and Shindouji, most of the player are badass normals with only one or two member with ability. In some ways it makes both teams inferior to Shiraitodai, but also make them more flexible and unpredictable. Throughout the Semi of Side A, notice that most of these badass normals are the ones coming up with counter measures against ability users. Akado vision is perhaps one of Achiga main secret weapon. Senriyama we have FunaQ targeting Seiko's discards, and Shindouji’s Yoshiko also seem to be able to adapt her playstyle to counter Sumire arrow shots. Who know what they will do next. So in a sense, having a team of badass normals might not be entirely a bad thing, I also think this a reason is why Himematsu was picked to advance along with Kiyosumi.

As stated Sumire was holding back, also Sumire can ditch her ability without any repercussions, also she getd over her tell, Sumire now has all 3 targets ready for again. Also what if it turns out that Sumire's piercing arrow, was able to get direct hits players as soon as they reach tenpai, meaning that Sumire will become very dangerous in the finals.

Originally Posted by teja208

In terms of characterization, if you didn't count Teru and Awai, I don't think the rest of Shiraitodai have much to offer in order to make us root for them. When it comes to characterization Senriyama is the best out of the four teams here. TokixRyuuka consider by some as the top pairing in Sakiverse which says a lot. We also got Sera, a kickass tomboy who seems to taken liking of Ako, and sadistic mad scientist Funa Q who I think would want a rematch with Arata. Izumi appears to be Senriyama's Yuuki, she might be weak, but she has room for improvement. Shindouji is also marginally better than Shiraitodai when it come to memorable characters, we have "Subara", "It's all the government's fault!" and "Reservation" + *moaning* I think you get my point.

I think in the finals we'll be seeing more of Shiraitodai's interactions as a team. Senriyama may have the best characterization, but they are effectively the weakest on team at the table, as when you compare abilities and play styles, Senriyama's have to many flaws, Toki can't always change something from happening at people who the tiles favor naturally screw with her ability, Izumi's defensive as been shown to be atrocious and again she overestimates herself way to much while stupidly underestimating her opponents, Sera's style has the flaw of taking to long to form without the benefits of setting traps like Hiroe's or Hisa hell waits ability, while Hiroko's style of analyzing abilities/play styles doesn't work very well most vice-captains styles are flexible or their abilities haven't got exploitable flaws, while Ryuuka does have her foresight and normal, skill but when most captains are either monsters, monster slayers or have abilities that effectively skewer draws in their favor they don't fare well against other schools.

Originally Posted by teja208

I should also mention that I felt Himematsu characterization isn't bad as well especially coming from Hiroe and Kyouko although Miyamori is good too but not much from Eisui. Eisui were pretty much there to offer us superpowers and additional fancservices. It would seem that team without much superpower are compensate with deeper characterization.

Overall, Senriyama has a very well-balanced team of both badass normal and superpower players with best characterization which is why I think they deserve to advance along with Achiga to the finals.

Eisui will hopefully get some more characterization in the individuals. Also Himematsu are school of legit badass normals, Suzu is the only inconstant one, while we have Yuuko who was the only one to get a win over Mako, Hiroe and traps are really annoying, Kinue who was able to defend when she had to deal with Nodoka, Hatsumi and Sae, while yes Sae focused mainly on Hatsumi, Kinue didn't discard any wind tiles, while also being able to avoid Nodoka, and Kyoukp stood on even footing with basically a fortune user, a goddesses and Miyanaga, which is very impressive for someone with nothing of any real specialty

Originally Posted by cedec0

That preview at the end of season 1 was made in 2009, before the creation of Achiga-hen. I don't think it is still valid.

I bet you anything that, while Shiraitodai was originally supposed to make it to the finals, they later decided to make Shiraitodai into the "final boss" of the Achiga-hen side story.

If Shiraitodai was really going to make finals, then the semi-finals would have been used to showcase the school's awsome mahjong power. This didn't happen. Right now Shiraitodai has one "awsome" player (Teru) and four, point-losing disappointments. (Does anyone think Seiko stands a chance against Nadoka? Is that an anticipated matchup?)

Its very simple, reveal everything about the school's abilities and play styles so that we can focus on the game, and workout all the mechanics and subtle things that Ritz puts in, like with Kiyosumi's quarter-finals, or how if you pay attention you see Yuuki's progress.

Originally Posted by cedec0

Can someone help me out? I don't get this attitude that "Shiraitodai is guaranteed to make the finals", especially because i have yet to hear a single solid argument that supports this belief. While there is a lot of the evidence pointing to a Shiraitodai loss, I haven't seen any evidence suggesting the opposite.

So can someone explain to me why everyone thinks "Shiraitodai is guaranteed to make the finals" (Yes, Shiraitodai is a strong school... but all the teams in the semi-final are strong!)

Is the entire idea that "Shiraitodai is guaranteed to make the finals" based on a five second preview (showing Yuuki vs Teru) at the end of season 1 from way back in 2009? Is there anything else?

Shiraitodai are guaranteed a place because of their strength, the only 1 out of the 5 members who did bad was Seiko and that was just because her ability limits her, and Hiroko's style is the type that people with limiting styles and abilities are weak against. Also Awai is still dominating despite Himeko and Ryuuka's abilities

Originally Posted by night_sentinel

You are serious? You really don't get why its almost a sure thing that Shiraitodai is going to the finals?

As for Shiraitodai going to the finals which argument do you want? Story-telling perspective? Strength? Or current flow of the last match?

Let's see. Storytelling perspective.
Shiraitodai is undoubtedly the last boss of the tournament. They are the favorite to win. Heck, they won it for the last two years. I don't know about you, but I can't see Achiga, Senriyama or Shindouji replacing their spot. Even if they fell short of their hype, Shiraitodai as a whole is still the strongest team in Side-A.

There is also in term of potentiality. Senriyama, Shindouji and yes even Achiga barring any strategy that Akado can come up with has already shown all their cards. This still hasn't happened with Shiraitodai. Teru, Sumire and Takami can still get scarier.

Yep I see Shiraitodai is the final boss and I see them basically backing every member of Kiyosumi into a corner. Meaning Yuuki having to try and really keep the points she got as dealer from the east round in the south round, while Mako will possibly have to Sumire, who changes her hand as the match goes to attack other players, remember one of Mako's strategies is to make calls to slow down other players hands, which is basically what she did and screwed over Asilinn's abilities, and you dot not restrict yourhand against Sumire, which is what calls do, Takami style also incorporates speed, meaning she'd be screwing Hisa out of hell waits, which take time, while Saki has to deal with someone who can take away her winning tiles. Nodoka is the only one who won't have trouble, but maybe Seiko is hiding something. I really do hope Seiko is hiding something, like maybe she doesn't actually need to make calls to get toitoi, which would really put a throne in Nodoka.

Originally Posted by night_sentinel

As for the current match. I, myself, has been burned by the Awai hype. But, really. Awai is doing good all things considered. Just look at the point difference. She's raking a lot of points. The only plausible scenario for Shiraitodai to lose this current battle is if Awai was hitted directly by the incoming dealer yakuman. And even then, some calculations show that they will be able to retain second or even first simply to the high value hands that Awai was making.

I'm not burned by it. I basically see it as showing that Awai is still freaking scary when you have 2 people who're basically hacking, and the one who stopped the start of her rampage was Shizu, who was basically forced into revealing her hidden ability of negating occult players wins.

Originally Posted by cedec0

From the storytelling perspective, for a school to be known as the "strongest" doesn't provide any plot armor towards getting into the finals. Rather the opposite.

Tell me which of the following sounds more impressive:

1) Shiraitodai (the champion for the last two years) + some other school
2) The two schools "even stronger than Shiraitodai"

It happens all the time in fiction that someone is introduced as the "last boss" only to be defeated by someone even more powerful before the showdown with the heros ever happens. For example, Take Androids 17 and 18 who get taken out by Cell in Dragon Ball Z.

If all you want is the strongest possible opponents for the final, then two schools "even stronger than Shiraitodai" is the best you can get.

Saki isn't dragonball. And Shiratodai is the strongest team in the side a semi-finals, Seiko was the only one who got a huge point loss, where as the other 3 schools had to fight just to keep up with them. Also something that show Senriyma is weaker then Achhiga, Achiga where th1st ines to make it back to 1000 points, while Izumi basically caused Senriyama to become the school to bust.

Originally Posted by cedec0

Teru can still get scarier, of course, but you can't say that about the other two. There is just as much chance that Sumire and Takami would get even weaker. All the other teams could figure out Sumire's tell, and, if there are less dealer repeats in her round and she isn't dealer at the end, Takami would also become even less impressive.

Teru (and Shizuno for now) are the only characters in the semi-finals who haven't "shown all their cards".

Teru knows about Sumire's tell, so that means Teru is probably going to have her use her piercing arrow in a quick match and watch for it, and will tell Sumire about it, and find a work around. Takami still has the fact she can plays with fast hands, also what Takami was to get a direct hit on someone, lets say for example, she deliberately aimed her harvest time at Hitomi, Hitomi would've effectively gone bust and if Shindouji had points left, Seiko would possibly finish them off.

Originally Posted by cedec0

Actually, given Saki's and Teru's personality, they probably wouldn't watch each others matches even in the finals.

Saki is going to watch the finals, seriously she's a close friend to Yuuki and her teammate, I'd feel like crap if they didn't come cheer for me. Again Teru will watch Saki's match, probably out of curiosity about Shizu's ability, as well as to cheer Awai on.

Originally Posted by night_sentinel

There is one teensy eensy problem with this statement. There may be a hype about two school stronger than Shiraitodai in the media. But, we the reader are actually exposed to the actual powerlevel and have witnessed the match. And we know that the other teams isn't actually stronger than Shiraitodai. Heck, you can argue that they are possibly weaker. If the scenario you proposed happened off-screen ... sure, it can possibly work. But, not here.

What we will get if that happens is negative hype with the expectation that Side-B will stomp your candidate from Side-A.

I agree here.

Originally Posted by night_sentinel

Let's see, if you want to compare Achiga and Shiraitodai...

Let's see on Yuu vs. Sumire..
I have a confession to make. I absolutely loathe the idea of Sumire's tell. I think that it would be better if it didn't exist because it single-handedly made the plot armor of Achiga sing I'm here! I'm here! that I even took notice. Most of the time, I'm trying to avoid thinking that it happened because I really like Yuu and I don't want that single action to color my judgement. Kapeesh?

I don't like it either, because it undermines both Sumire's skill and ability, as well as Yuu's badass moments. What's weirder is there is normal counter to it, so the tell is not needed. Also seeing as Harue managed to figure out Takami's harvest time, why couldn't it have just been she noticed that when someone plays defensively Sumire has a tendency to force her hand, meaning Yuu ronning Sumire would've mean more awesome.

Originally Posted by night_sentinel

On Takami vs Ako
Even if Takami never got her stupid yakuman just the possibility of it happening is limiting to Ako. Ako's playstyle is fast hands and it really should be covered by dealer repeats to make most of it. This round by nature won't really gain much points. Or if Takami get her last dealer... a slaughter against Ako.

Actually when you think about Takami has the perfect counter for Ako's style. The point of fast/speedy hands is to quickly get to your dealership then get dealer repeats and proceed to bust someone. With Takami since Ako would be winning with cheap hands, all Takami is one good hit on Ako in the last round and Ako would lose.

Originally Posted by night_sentinel

How about Awai vs. Shizu? A bit doable...
1 on 1. I think that Awai will win against Shizu. This is because Shizu has shown no way of stopping passive abilities like 6-shanten. Besides, I have a feeling that Shizu's ability is conditional meaning it isn't active or consciously controlled. Its more likely that it will only be active if certain rolls of the dice are made.
On the other hand as a previous poster has pointed out, Awai's ability is active all the time. A big plus.

I agree here, but like with Koromo I'd say Shizu would be able to give Awai a good match, basically Awai wouldn't win through busting her.

Originally Posted by cedec0

I didn't really like the tell thing (or things like "power up from removing sock"), but whatever. However, tell or no tell, Sumire perfomance was still weak: If you add up the score of all the games where she didn't use her special ability, she still lost 5300 points.

Sumire used her sniping in four games:

+8000
+2600
-12000
-2100
Total impact of sniping -3500 points


Sumire lost 8800 points during the Sergeant battle, and the majority of that (5300 points) came from games where she didn't try to snipe.

Sumire ran into the same problem that Hitomi ran into. Yoshiko was using fast hands as counter. Sumire's ability requires time to get the right set up attack. Basically how Hitomi had to deal with Ako's fast/cheap hands play style.

Originally Posted by cedec0

This is team event, and it is the team strenght that matters. Yes, Teru is unstoppable, but the strenght of the players who followed was lacking compared to the other schools. If Shiraitodai comes in 3rd or 4th, it is because the overall strenght of the winning schools was higher than Shiraitodai. These winning schools would be "even stronger than Shiraitodai".

Please do take note that Shiraitodai are still in the lead, despite everything that's happened. And remember they seem to be hiding their actual power levels. Which is basically what Kiyosumi did in the side a preliminaries and quarter-finals. And look at what Yuuki is having to do to hold onto her dealership. While Shiraitodai is in the semi-finals and are still holding back.

Originally Posted by cedec0

Didn't both Saki and Nadoka SLEEP through the Sergeant round of the prefectural tournament final? See: http://www.mangahere.com/manga/saki/c019/26.html

They were specifically told by Hisa to go sleep, so they wouldn't fall asleep in the middle of their matches. And they still watched Yuuki's match.

Also something to note is Senriyama maybe ranked 2nd in the country, they are not the 2nd strongest. They placed 4th in the last nationals. Which implies Sera got destoryed by Jindai, then Teru completely destoryed Ryuuka.