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Originally Posted by Oliver
If the FFT is planned during this conference, the only way it can work is if Rosa convinces the cousins to play along, she returns earlier. This FFT being conducted by the Anti-Krauss faction looks supported by the subsequent events, like the mysteriously dead/not dead Hideyoshi, which boil down to a joint and extensive Natsuhi whipping. (Who else has a reason to torture Natsuhi other than the people she successfully tricked for over a year?)
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Maybe in this particular episode the siblings and Battler have been let in on the plot as well. We only see Natsuhi's surprised reaction and no real thoughts from anyone else. At the very least if Rosa had always been in on the plan then in EP5, Battler definitely has knowledge of the FFT. But they don't necessarily need to have been brought into the plan from the outset. It could be that Hideyoshi and Eva were brought in on the plan afterwards at the time of the Second Twilight.
We do have an example from EP2 where people kept trying to fake murders (Nanjo and Kumasawa by Kanon) despite things already going horribly wrong.
But definitely the Fake First Twilight plays out in many different ways as there are episodes. But it looks like the plan was set prior to the start of the gameboard since it tries to express itself in nearly all episodes. Except EP4.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oliver
It might be that this is a complete illusion, though, and FFT is always planned by Beatrice faction beforehand, but then it is not clear why the victims are always different (if you have preparation time, isn't it better to pick the victims you're sure of?) or what's the point to it at all, since it's not necessarily connected to the epitaph letters.
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Ok.. using Lack-Of-Sleep-Reasoning, therefore the randomness somehow has inherent value to the executors of the FFT. We do have mention about how this is the 'Devil's Roulette' by Kinzo (and Beatrice, I think.) There wouldn't be comparisons to a roulette in the fantasy scenes if there were always the same 6 that died.
The fantasy explanation is that the roulette somehow gives birth to chance and chance gives birth to magic. Kinzo, though has stacked the game with a bunch of other victims to increase his chance of surviving; that is his fantasy goal. What could this mean in reality?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oliver
And that's the problem with FFT always being the work of Beatrice faction. The FFT and Beatrice factions need to share a lot of members, no doubt -- I just don't think the plan of solving the epitaph (which is indisputably of the Beatrice faction) and the FFT plan are supposed to mesh.
If it's the Beatrice faction, then what is the goal of FFT at all? It's very likely the goal is to influence Battler, since he stays alive for so long, but the most obvious way even a perfectly successful FFT plan can influence Battler is by inciting fear in him -- and fear was not the goal of Beatrice. It's still allowed to be an unavoidable side effect, I suppose, but what other effects can you have on a person by successfully pretending that six of his relatives and friends died in close vicinity?
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However, we have a commonality between the FFT and the Epitaph, of which the first letter, which we believe to have been prepared by the Beatrice faction, urges the solution to. In the Epitaph, one of the four treasures at the end was, "the resurrection of the souls of all the dead." If you don't believe resurrection is possible in reality, then the only way this can happen is if people play dead and then stop playing dead later.
In addition the treasure before this one was: "all the gold from the Golden Land." So, the gold itself is also part of the prize.
I believe this unites these key elements:
- Kinzo
- Kinzo's Epitaph
- The Gold
- Beatrice faction (majority of the servants + Rosa + Nanjo + either/both George and Jessica)
- First Beatrice letter
- First Twilight Fakery
- Battler's sin
- a lost love (the third treasure)
- to put the witch to sleep (the fourth treasure)
I'm thinking it's likely now the lost love refers to at least the cousins, but possibly something to do with Battler, and his sin. The lost refers to it having been lost long ago, rather than having been killed during the murders, since the plan was to fake the deaths to begin with...
I'm also thinking the idea of putting the witch to sleep is congruent with Beatrice's true objective of Battler killing her. In that way put her personality or legend or whatnot to sleep forever.
Also, all these elements seem to have no relation to the real murders, except of course by setting up a situation for the real murders to have happened in a easy way.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oliver
Making him remember his sin? I don't see how distracting him with apparent deaths of six people is going to help unless he actually managed to kill six people including his own mother six years ago and then forget about it.[/list]
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This is what we are told Beatrice wants Battler to do. If the fantasy Beatrice(ses) represent the Beatrice faction then that's what they want him to do too. How can losing the people you love make you remember your sin? Well, if you lose people maybe you will start regretting having taken them for granted. Maybe his disappearance for 6 years made someone feel like they were taken for granted.
We also know Battler's sin causes everyone to die. And we've guessed that it's an indirect death; Battler didn't kill nor was it directly revenge against him but rather his sin starts a chain of unavoidable events.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oliver
Unless anyone can think of a different behaviour that is expected of Battler and motivates the FFT, or a very specific sin that a FFT would trigger remembering, I'd say we need to conclude that either Beatrice Faction has nothing to do with it, or that Battler is not the intended recipient. But if we take all 6 episodes currently out, there is no character that never died in a First Twilight, and that actually includes Battler himself.
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Battler not only survives the First Twilight, he survives every twilight. Except the 10th, of course. I calculated the odds of this in one of the other threads, it's astronomically low. Astronomically low in a detective novel must indicate he survives on purpose, using our new methodology. 8)
http://forums.animesuki.com/showpost...postcount=1913
(Look for the chance for any one person to survive all episodes 1-5. 1.31%)
Also, check out: 3.46% Probability of not choosing any two people (EDIT: for FIrst Twilight) in all 5 games
Anyways, I'm not sure my Lack-Of-Sleep-Reasoning is working fully right now as I am not in any lack of sleep. I have to put my brain in a Zen-like state, which is why I actually rewrote some of this message several times to par it down to something even more simple. Maybe you guys can simplify it even further...