[Jan-Poo]

I'd say half-right half-paranoid. A witch of truth seems to be someone who after gathering evidences and using them for her reasoning elevates the most probable deduction to "red truth" even if there are still reasonable doubts.

This is at least what you can get from EP5 and from the battle Erika had with Dlanor in EP6.

So Ange's logic was sound, but no matter how probable it was for her to be right, there was still a chance Amakusa wouldn't kill her. None of his reactions really prove anything. Even if he didn't plan to kill her, he was still being targeted by an unstable girl with a gun who was seeing him as her potential killer. He probably didn't think he could make her change her mind with words alone.


Captain Kawabata's case is however was a lot less likely to be true, even Ange realized that it was a catbox, but she decided to kill him nonetheless in order to kill "the part of him that betrayed her", uncaring of the fact that by doing so she also killed "the part of him that was innocent".


As for what was the truth of that whole case... is there even a truth, I wonder? Is that event even canon in some world or just a what if scenario?
Episode4 suggests that everything would have gone as Ange predicted, but the part where Amakusa kills her, or lets her be killed is still a catbox. The ending scroll says that she died, but how? Did she die in Rokkenjima in front of her aunt, or did she die by falling from a skyscraper?

As for Kawabata. I think the odds are that he's innocent. We don't really have any real proof nor the slightest evidence to think he was bribed. The delay is a moot point. The sumadera should have been a lot faster than Ange and her bodyguard seeing as how they directly went to Rokkenjima with an airplane.