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It would be more of an 'ass pull' if Tobi turned out to be someone other than Obito, like some never-before-seen character. All the clues point to Obito, so for Tobi to be someone else would require the revelation of a massive amount of backstory to fill in the complete gap in character development - typically, such a backstory would come 'out of one's ass'. Obito, on the other hand, has a backstory - there is no ass pull needed in this case.
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Whenever someone writes the word "probably", I read it as "possibly, but not likely"
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