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From a professional stand point I can attest to the fact that the editor, who represents the actual publisher, has final say on how the story will play out or end. So if the writer turns in something the editor doesn't like the company usually takes his word for it, now I don't know exactly how much sway the writer has with the company, but from what I know of japanese publishing houses it doesn't amount to much. From what works I know of from Dengeki they don't usually have those dark taboo light novels, at least from the catalogue of theirs I've read(well except maybe Boogiepop). If you want to have an idea of the ending look at the publisher and editors history of releases, granted it's not 100% accurate but at least it's an idea, it's a start.
Now from a personal standpoint I doubt there will be an incest end Oreimo has been a light hearted funny comedy, usually incest ends will have more serious stories and darker situations. Plus, barring the imoutocons, the story ending with KyouXKiri would leave a sour taste in the mouth of alot of people. These are just my two cents take it or leave it.
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