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Originally Posted by Kamui4356
Now getting to the Israeli-palastinian issue, the Israelis are not the aggressor, but whether or not peace comes is more dependent on their actions than those of the palastinians. If the israelis were to pull out from the west bank and gaza strip completely including all the settlers, now would be a good time too thanks to arafat's death, the palastinians would then have what they wanted, their own country. Now most palastinians would be happy with that and even if the extremists wanted to continue the assult, they'd lose popular support from the palastinian people. If they managed to convince the people of their rightiousness, and continued, the israelis could then turn to the UN, and say that they tried peace, but it isn't working and they need to send UN peacekeeper into palastine, or the Israelis would have to defend themselves. Of course no one would want to send peacekeepers in, so it would give israel a free hand to do what ever they want.
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That would indeed be a good start, however the question is how far would Israel have to draw back, and what about Jerusalem?
But a complete withdrawal would indeed improve the situation alot. The Palestine could then try to build up their state, extremist groups would loose quite a bit of their support as well (provided Israel doesn't retaliate with tank and bulldozers)
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Originally Posted by Kamui4356
There are 2 potential problems with that though. It could make the arab nations surrounding israel think they've weakened from the suicide bombing, and inspire them to launch an invasion, but that isn't likely with the amount of US airpower in the region now. It could also cause a backlash among right wing factions in the israeli government, and may lead to a coup or outright civil war. Neither are very likely, but they are still of concern if Israel were to attempt such a plan.
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The Arab nations won't be easilly tempted to invade Israel, even if israel would withdraw. The Israeli army is allready the strongest in the entire middle east and at this moment there is also a sizeable US force present. Besides there weren't any Arab nations trying anything when Israel withdrew from Lebanon a couple of years ago. And the situation on that side (the constant conflicts with Hesbollah) have seriously improved since then.
About an extreme right coup : very unlikely as well : Currently the extremist parties on the right side are mostly colonist parties and their support isn't big enough to launch a coup. Besides the party currently in power (Sharon's Likud Party) is a right wing conservative one...
I think if Israel would withdraw it's troops and if they stop the retaliations with tanks and bulldozers, the real problems would be
1. Jerusalem : and solving this one is even harder, I see no easy solution to be honest
2. The economic situation of the Palestinian Territories : even if they are completely independent they have little or no natural resources of any kind, so this new independent state would be in a deep economic crisis real fast, this would ultimately lead to an unstable situation. And if you have a rich neighbour with whom you had decades of conflict, compared to your poverty, the possibility exists that extremist in the Palestine Territories will blame israel and the whole crap will start all over again.
A true solution would have to include rebuilding the Palestinian Economy in my opinion.
PS thx NSW