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Originally Posted by Sumeragi
Both countries are on relatively high alert because of DPRK (as usual) and the Sino-Russian live ammo exercise in the Yellow Sea that just ended. It's PRC that can't divert their resources, not the judgement of the two countries. Basically, PRC isn't in the position to move their subs without risking problems in the Yellow Sea (DPRK stuff) or the Socotra Rock situation (compounded by the new naval base being developed in Jeju, which would challenge PRC's power in the East China Sea).
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I hazard-guess that Russia would meet the Yanks first even if the US was sailing up from Guadalcanal. Their expeditionary force have to past through the area near the Kuril Islands if they are going to engage the Chinese, and the Russians might engage or stall them enough for the fast assault craft (Frigates and Subs mostly) to threaten SEA.
The Chinese Navy in the area might be temporarily thinned to support the South. And we don't know how much long-range dispensable assets the Chinese have (missiles) to be able to put the 7th Fleet on temporary hold in the NorPac area.
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Originally Posted by JokerD
Maybe they can take a leaf from Iranian tactics and try fast cheap and lots of armed motor boat that can swarm larger boats.
The thing I seem to note about China maritime confrontations is that they are pretty aggressive, while the other side would be careful not to provoke and turn things into international incidents, the chinese vessels, from civilian (fishing etc) to military do not seem to have such concerns.
1 thing you do not want to do is to get into a arms race with China, unless you are sure you can out spend them to get better hardware (not likely)
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Naval capability, IMO, works like a scissors-paper-stone thing, in a manner of brown>green>blue cyclic style. China is still in green-water navy stage, transitioning into blue, so while small missile boats might make them laugh, it still can cause some serious damage for them to think twice before assaulting SEA.
And China is thinking of subverting us to their side. If they really send the Varyag through here to Changi naval base, count on the Malaysians to start reinforcing their SOF-QRF camp in Johor - we will be overrun by Special Forces instead of regular army troops.
LKY's speech about extra US forces in our area is to keep the other Muslim states from invading us due to our majority Chinese population AND friendly ties with China. The tie-ins with Zhejiang-SUTD and the CCC are to appease China from sending a threatening-scale military exchange here, alongside many other things (if you know what I mean). Wish China would just respect this area as a mostly NAL group of island-nations, so what if we are militarily friendly with the Yanks? Threatening us with the fact that "Singapore needs China more than China needs Singapore" is going to make everything worse.
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Originally Posted by DonQuigleone
Is there a Pacific/South East Asian equivalent of NATO? With China being the rising power, and it's neighbours being dependent on each other and the USA for defense against it, it would seem to be a good idea.
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5-PDA. And that only consist of Singapore and Malaysia as Asian countries and the 2 Southeast Commonwealth states (ANZAC) alongside the UK..