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Except that Ikeda could always put some plot twists that would change how we look at the matter of Alucard, after all, we don't know how Ikeda is going to continue developing this particular plot point.
Still, I agree that Tsukune is more susceptible on being the one who is going to awaken Alucard, due to the fact that he has less control over his Shinso power's compared to Moka, but because of that, I wouldn't put it past Tohou Fuhai to put some counter measures that would prevent Tsukune from awakening Alucard, even if he loses control over his powers - since, I doubt that Tohou Fuhai would allow Tsukune to rescue Moka if it contained even a small risk that Alucard would be awaken.
Now, it's certain that sooner or later Alucard is going to be awakened, but I don't think it's going to occur in the current arc.
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