I tend to think that Aiko is genuinely conflicted and her feelings towards Shin is the classic "grass is greener on the other side" response.
I think Aiko does like Nobuse but feels he's somewhat immature and thus isn't willing to accept him quite yet. If and when Nobuse proves himself to be worthy, I think her wavering will die down.
Aiko knows she doesn't have much of a chance with Shin and chose to move on. Not sure when Hiromi will do the same, but #4 (Jun) is surely not a bad choice. Most people don't end up with their first love, but it's also true that the vast majority of the time, it's for the better.
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