Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo
Imagine that there are 10.000 cards that have a "stranger" on their front and a card that have "Yasu" on its front.
You know that the Yasu card has definitely Battler on its back, and you know that only 100 out of the 10.000 stranger cards have Battler on their back.
Now the card that you have in your hand was extracted randomly from the 10001 cards and it has Battler on its back, this is your known fact. You don't know what's behind it, and you need to use a statistical reasoning to infere what is more likely to be behind: Yasu or a Stranger?
You should be able to see that the fact that the Yasu card has a 100% of probability to have Battler on its back doesn't mean much in this case.
The probability that you have a stranger card in your hand is higher: 100 cases against 1.
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Right but, what if I'm specifically looking only for Battler cards? Or more technically, what if Ikuko is specifically looking for Battler? The random chance analogy works only in the specific instance where Tohya actually is encountered and rescued at random. It's possible that chance is actually extremely low, but is markedly higher for anyone intentionally and deliberately seeking him out.
The problem is that "Ikuko = Yasu" and "Ikuko = Random Eccentric Interested in the Case" both have sufficient motive to be looking for Battler or someone like him, and both have incentive to hide him away once they find him. But the field could be narrowed significantly.