Quote:
Originally Posted by Anh_Minh
Yeah, that begs two questions:
- how did he know?
- how did everyone else not know?
It's just too big to be concealed. There were to many people who had to know. Or at least know something like that was up. For example, the hundred of unemployed mercenaries, now making the roads impracticable with their banditry? They know. The god knows how many merchants who sell stuff to the Church every year around this time period? They know. Whoever's working as personal servants or assistants for the bigwigs who usually go? They know.
And it's not like it could have happened overnight while Lawrence was between Pollson and Rubinhaigen, since the bandits were already active when he arrived in Pollson.
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You are right, that certainly is something strange about that. Unless (a) those mercenaries actually got discharged from their services without being given a proper reason.
But the fall in armor prices could have happened overnight. Just imagine that if Bill Gates die today, and no official announcement was made to the world until one week later, then the Microsoft stock prices will dip only after one week. Why? Because no one knows about it yet.
Suppose that (b) Rubinhaigen has made a decision not to launch the expedition, but no official announcement has been made to the world yet, so similarly the armor prices won't fall yet. However, if (c) the Poloson merchant happen to know somebody with inside information, he may know of the decision before it was officially announced to the world.
However none of my speculations (a), (b) or (c) were mentioned in the novel at all. In fact, it was written from Lawrence perspective that he's guessing the Poloson merchant knew about the cancellation in advance. I guess the author is either leaving it to the imagination of the readers, or it's a plot hole.