[Wanderer]

Originally Posted by qno2

Yes, I'm aware of the red - that's why I said that Nanjo's behaviour in his theory, it's just not... well it is mystery-logic, same as Shkanon. Because the red said so, he doesn't kill. I assumed that KnowNoMore wanted to make the individual stories a bit more realistic (and less dominated by the red) and less bound to such meta-reasons. Guess it's another misconeption I'll have to get rid of.

Ohhhh no. He's all about the red. Alllll about it. To him it's red, then detective's perspective, then whatever makes the most sense to him after that (which is... quite silly at times).

And to be fair, it's really quite hard to make Nanjo not be an accomplice no matter what theory you ascribe to.

Originally Posted by Captain Bluebeard

But it's not the same thing. In EP5 everyone else was in on it and did their best to hide the corpses from Erika (the detective), plus there kinda were hints of fake deaths all over the place.

Nono, I was thinking you were joking about KnownNoMore's theory for the first twilight of EP5, which I find more... um... silly than his EP1 first twilight.

Originally Posted by theacefrehley

I always imagined the bottle message stories were ready for quite some time, in case Battler came back or something. And typhoons are a normal occurrence around there, maybe?

Originally Posted by jjblue1

They are. There's a siblings' discussion about how the weather is always bad when they go visiting and how they would like to change the time for the family reunion but apparently nobody had the guts to tell Kinzo this.

But we're not just talking about predicting that a typhoon would come during or around the family conference, we're talking about predicting that a typhoon would arrive on the afternoon of the first day of the conference between ~3:30PM and ~5PM. Is that a regular occurrence? In other words, even if we assume a typhoon will come, it's still ridiculous. If you consider the typhoon to last 36 hours, it would affect the conference if it started any time on October 3rd or October 4th, or in the morning of October 5th. That's a 60 hour span. However, the timing of the typhoon's arrival in the story is narrowed down to a 1-2 hour period. If you do the math, the chance of guessing the timing of the typhoon's arrival in that period of time is around 2-3%. And this is if you assume a typhoon even comes at all.

Originally Posted by theacefrehley

And maybe Ange's roles in the stories were so small, Yasu could just erase her name and fill it with whatever, if she wrote it with a pencil. Even if Ange's absence was informed a day or two before the meeting.

That's not easy. It's hard to imagine that Ange would have a role that small because if Ange were there then her family's behavior would be completely different. This would be especially significant given that Battler is the viewpoint character and, as her brother, watching over her would be a central concern of his. And making these changes would be exceedingly difficult; Beatrice wasn't using Microsoft Word.

Basically, these are the kinds of awkward arguments I was talking about before; it's searching for a silly gap in the closed room, like saying maybe the chain was set from the outside or maybe they used small bombs. Sure, maybe it's possible, but it's probably not the right way to think.

Originally Posted by jjblue1

The fact that nobody takes the tales seriously and apparently, apart from checking they weren't written by Maria, they didn't bother to check if they were written by someone else, pushes me to think that, although they gave a definite 'Rokkenjima' feeling the police didn't believe them to be relevant, one way or the other, nor that there was a need to bribe someone into saying they have found such 'irrelevant' tales (irrelevant as they doesn't really help figure out who's the real culprit in Prime as they are considered only by the witch hunters).

Preposterous. People do not, all on a whim, write stories about the murder of all their friends and family on a certain day, bottle them, and throw them into the ocean... only to have those people to happen to die on that very day for completely unrelated reasons. If it was pre-incident, which the police thought it was (at least as the story goes), then it's an obvious confession by the killer. There's no way that they would think it was anything but eminently relevant, even if they don't understand it well.

And I don't know why you assume the police didn't investigate the writing. If they did, they would do it discretely in the first place. And if we go by your interpretation, since Ootsuki didn't mention it, the Witch Hunters themselves also did not check for other peoples' signatures.