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Originally Posted by Vexx
Right, it isn't Syria itself but the effect that open violence would have on the region - oil (tankers, pipes, etc) are natural collateral damage.
And in futures trading, its all about the perceived risk and the potential of realization. And yeah, our little idiot Senator McCain is really just mouthing off. Its unlikely we're going to do anything to Syria without a quiet arrangement with Moscow.
Iran, OTOH, has a higher potential of disaster for oil futures (i.e. profits for the speculators) because its more likely to be hit by SOMEBODY (I wouldn't even be surprised if other Arab States were jittery much less Israel or the US). All the cultural posturing about who has the biggest balls make this a more likely scenario.
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Despite Iran being abit of a flak magnet and possibly a literal one in the future, I don't thin any Arab country would want to hit it because it has got a pretty strong military force - attacking it could cause a potential stalemate.
I don't think Russia would side against them again now that the more radical Khomieni is dead, his successor is more open to building political relationships against US, but is still as reclusive.