After thinking about it I agree it's pretty much going to be the Greece Arc along with a bit of fluff. They'll have to cut a ton of stand alone and fluff chapters out, but unless they have 52 episodes (they won't) they can either adapt the Greece Arc
or a whole stack of pretty funny chapters that don't go anywhere and that's not a hard choice to make.
I'm just curious to see who's going to be doing the third season. I'm assuming Mangrove just because it sounds like they want to tie it in with the movie and it would be weird to have two different animation styles in the same year. With Mangrove doing it then they can throw in an advertisement for season three in the movie credits and be like "See more awesome Hayate animation from these guys!"
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Anyway, I can see this to be the case here. SynergySP's attempt at making it into a kid's show, J.C.Staff's trying to appeal more to the late night audience, while profitable, haven't been all that successful to be better than the other. It's clear that the franchise while can generate enough to make a decent amount, isn't that much of a hit to warranty much care to the story (considering that the continuity between the two series s flimsy as it is) and that their trying to milk it as fast as they can (J.C.Staff is already in charge of many successful that I'm certain would take more priority for the studio to get out first)
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It's hard to figure out the logic behind the studio changes because when a license is taken away the usual assumption is that it didn't meet expectations but at the same time both seasons did well enough to greenlight a sequel, so... (and precious few series get three seasons and a movie, lets be honest.)
There was also a considerable delay between season announcements this time. Maybe J.C. Staff just had too much stuff on their plate and Kodansha took the license to a new studio to get it out faster.