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I vote for Bern providing an incomplete bull.
That is, nothing of it is red-level truth. It's interpretation of truth based on hints and various research -- fan theories for us, own conclusion for Bern, whatever. Much of it happens to be true, just as much happens to be false. Bern seems to have built a supertheory she feels explains everything of note. The list of assumptions she makes for it to work contains ideas both true and false as related to Beatrice's original gameboard, and Bern does not actually red-truth-level know which of them is which.
As she does not "have love", (and explicitly says she doesn't, yet the love story plays a prominent part -- characters do have love, Bern does not) key pieces of information are missing which would reveal some of these assumptions as false and wreck the supertheory-level reasoning, even though they would only invalidate some of the component theories. The supertheory itself is sufficiently compelling for her that even though it contains small inconsistencies that make us doubt it, she prefers to overlook them.
The world she created is pieced together from various kakera with unknown points of divergence and Bern's own fiction , and has no actual relation to Beatrice's gameboard, it is explicitly a construct meant to present her supertheory to Featherinne. This is revealed when the epitaph solution is described and the actual name of Kinzo's hometown is explicitly given -- according to Bern herself, "the actual location is not spoken of in any of the kakera". Well, here it is spoken.
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