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Actually, now that I think on it I think you're right and it's the opposite; the letter-writer probably does know Kinzo is dead, but is forgetting that this knowledge carries over into their scenarios.
Thus, no one accuses Kinzo of being the killer even though he's never accounted-for and has a near-impenetrable hideout to retreat to. No one seems terribly concerned for his safety. The few times it's mentioned they suggest he's safe in his study, but they don't know whether he stays there (it's noted he might leave when he gets hungry) and if the killer can enter seemingly locked rooms, why can't the killer get into the study somehow? He's mentioned and shown, but never seriously considered as an alive person ought to be in the story.
It seems reasonable, I guess, that the letter writer - if indeed the events of the episodes were what was written in the bottles and not something else entirely - knew Kinzo was dead, but had to pretend that Kinzo was not dead. They just didn't do a very good job of it.
Of course, if you knew Kinzo was dead, why would his body turn up in the same burned circumstances three games out of four? If you're just writing imaginary scenarios where everyone dies, you wouldn't need to do that. Which makes me suspect the messages in bottles don't describe any episode at all.
EDIT: Also, I see no reason the messages in bottles would just stop the way the games do. If the story in the bottle were episode 1, for instance, why would you just end right where it ends? What happens to the children? What happens to Beatrice? ep3 and 4 are also somewhat abrupt. We can guess and infer what happens from the epilogue and witch's record, but Ange suggests the messages describe everyone dying. So unless they also end with "And then everyone left died, THE END," I have to think the messages in the bottles suggest an endgame scenario that we've never seen come to pass. Ange would be aware of this, but she never brings it up. She also never brings up whether she's in any of the letters.
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