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I'm not saying I believe in an accident, I'm saying the only conclusion I can reach from the evidence I've been given is an accident, unless Ryukishi reveals some of the evidence he's intentionally hiding from his readers.
Also, "it was an accident" does not entail that any murders happened, nor does it require a murder game happened. It's not unfathomable that there was just a chance detonation during the storm, entirely without human intervention. Is it implausible? Yes, but so is having dozens of WW2 torpedoes rigged to explode 40 years after the fact. Why would we believe one and not the other?
As far as the gold's veracity: First of all, we don't know there was ever any gold, and we don't know that Kinzo got it from an Italian submarine. What we do know is that Kinzo presented at least one gold bar to a business associate, and this person supposedly confirmed its existence to the satisfaction of people who gave Kinzo loans. Now, if you ask me, which is more plausible and more in character with Kinzo's personality: That he really did happen to have 10t of WW2 gold, or that he scraped together the illusion that he did with a bit of manipulation?
Having said that, it isn't especially relevant whether it's real or not, as I think it's merely a distraction from the real issue. For example, if Yasu was really the killer, money didn't matter to her at all. She had the 10t of gold, and she didn't care. So right away that makes the motive of the presented culprit figure non-financial in nature. And indeed, every other motive we have is related to love, or jealousy, or some associated thing thereof. Hell, George is suspicious as all get-out, and even he says he'd rather make his own fortune his own way!
I'm also not sure I'd buy Ange's reaction being what it was in ep8 if what she read was "Somebody killed everybody else for money." That's exactly the sort of answer she was afraid she might see. That's the sort of answer that she'd been teased about. The implication seems to be that what she saw was both surprising and underwhelming. Given the psychological impact some theories seemed to have on her, whatever she saw apparently wasn't that traumatic.
EDIT: Regarding Yasu's "sins," consider that the message bottles created the rampant murder speculation. Could that, rather than any actual physical wrong, have been her sin?
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