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Irenicus · 2012-12-19, 03:20

Japan and much of the developed world can ramp up their food production by quite a lot. It will be costlier, and it will harm the environment in the long run, but Malthusian starvation isn't on the agenda. What primarily happened in Japan with its food production issues are two things, first is that the population decline hit the rural areas the hardest. The youth don't want to be farmers. Second is that the Japanese diet dramatically shifted over the decades from its historical basis on fish and rice and local vegetables to a much more diverse cuisine that uses ingredients from many foreign regions...to the benefit of world culture and my palate, so frankly the food survivalists can shut up on this second account, donburi banzai.

The other, far more immediate problem is that the modern capitalist model is not built to accept a long-term population downturn. That is anathema to everything it stands for. It is designed for growth, and assumes as a priori a long term trend of growth -- expanding businesses, more consumers, more workers, more taxpayers contributing into the social system -- and that means it needs a pyramidal demographic. The negative effects of a permanently contracting economy are structural and seemingly insurmountable.

Japan is thus forced by its demographic circumstances and political difficulties (the total failure of leadership, the xenophobic immigration system, and the intense difficulties facing even local "non Japanese" to assimilate and acquire citizenship, which combined means the other developed nations' solution of immigration isn't realistic) to once again pioneer something for the rest of the developed world, but this time it has to try and invent a working paradigm for stable, effective economy based on the assumption of a long term declining or hopefully stabilized population. Maybe it will work out long term, becoming a truly sustainable society, but I fear the total failure of the Japanese political leadership means that the capability and will needed to bring about changes are just not there, and that means pain, a lot of pain, while the geopolitical region it is in is increasingly competitive just as its competitiveness declines.

2012-12-19, 03:20	Link #2661
Irenicus Le fou, c'est moi Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Las Vegas, NV, USA Age: 34	Japan and much of the developed world can ramp up their food production by quite a lot. It will be costlier, and it will harm the environment in the long run, but Malthusian starvation isn't on the agenda. What primarily happened in Japan with its food production issues are two things, first is that the population decline hit the rural areas the hardest. The youth don't want to be farmers. Second is that the Japanese diet dramatically shifted over the decades from its historical basis on fish and rice and local vegetables to a much more diverse cuisine that uses ingredients from many foreign regions...to the benefit of world culture and my palate, so frankly the food survivalists can shut up on this second account, donburi banzai. The other, far more immediate problem is that the modern capitalist model is not built to accept a long-term population downturn. That is anathema to everything it stands for. It is designed for growth, and assumes as a priori a long term trend of growth -- expanding businesses, more consumers, more workers, more taxpayers contributing into the social system -- and that means it needs a pyramidal demographic. The negative effects of a permanently contracting economy are structural and seemingly insurmountable. Japan is thus forced by its demographic circumstances and political difficulties (the total failure of leadership, the xenophobic immigration system, and the intense difficulties facing even local "non Japanese" to assimilate and acquire citizenship, which combined means the other developed nations' solution of immigration isn't realistic) to once again pioneer something for the rest of the developed world, but this time it has to try and invent a working paradigm for stable, effective economy based on the assumption of a long term declining or hopefully stabilized population. Maybe it will work out long term, becoming a truly sustainable society, but I fear the total failure of the Japanese political leadership means that the capability and will needed to bring about changes are just not there, and that means pain, a lot of pain, while the geopolitical region it is in is increasingly competitive just as its competitiveness declines.