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One reason Obito can't be Tobi, and i won't go into more detail than this: the story would go into ruins. I'm sure it would flip everyone's lids if Obito really was Tobi, and it would be quite the suspenseful twist, but the plot would be in shambles. Why would Obito suddenly get out of the rubble, and plan for world damnation (assume he's capable of such a feet, even with someone's help).
Why would Tobi go to such extreme lengths to pretend he's Madara if he really isn't? What does he have to gain, i mean really? Kabuto puts the pressure on him by threatening to reveal some "big secret", and if it was Madara in the coffin, so what?! Will things really be that different if everyone knew Tobi wasn't Madara? The opposing side may or may not be less intimidated by Tobi now. But ask yourself this, who would you be more afraid of, some broken has-been who is "a shadow of his former self"; or a new unknown enemy with unmeasured potential?
To be honest, him simply being Madara is too predictable, based on all this foreshadowing and secrecy; i don't think Madara is behind the mask either.
Let me throw in my theory on the whole coffin shabeel:
Kabuto summoned Tobi himself in the coffin, not Madara informing him he knows his game, and not the first hokage to frighten him into submission. I'm talking about Tobi himself with the mask and everything, simply proving that Tobi is dead. That would partly explain his reaction "[...] you madman!", i imagine the revelation of Tobi actually being a dead person can impact his overall plans quite a bit.
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