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That is my top 10 for AST list. The list is similar for KBM, by the way, but the ordering is different. KBM's start date has not been formalized, yet.
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Umm...not even half a mention of Touwa Erio?? She's by far the most popular character this season...
And as far as I'm concern, Azu-nyan is 900x more popular in Japan than Mio. Madoka is not even #2 behind Homu-Homu (Tomoe Mami is).
Will be able to tell once the prelim votes gets in, because as of right now, it's all talk on paper. Homura IS strong, but not necessarily dominating. Biribiri always have a strong fanbase, Kuroneko dominates C79, predicting Kanade getting sniped off again. No clue as if who's the dark horse (Last year it's Yamada, absolutely no clue this year)
To make things worse(?), no Saki this year (for once), making things much more unpredictable.
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9. Haqua du Lot Herminium : She is supposed to be more popular than Elsie, but didn't get enough chance to show her stuff in the TVA. Still, she has a chance since comic book popularity matters in AST.
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Only ranking I can find (and not necessarily 100% accurate):
http://anime.biglobe.ne.jp/userranking/title/9062/
Of course, Haqua being a tsundere never hurts.