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Yes, generally, by being in a habit of "ask questions first, fire later", you can dodge the false positive problem.
Others may not be as wise as you of course. It's also very easy to lose your common sense when you're pumped up on adrenaline, ready to defend your homestead.
Anyway, what I'd take away is, if you're not 100% sure, you're probably incorrect. This kind of mathematics might be why accidental shootings are more common then actual defenses against a home invasion. You'd need to do some guesstimating before you had a reasonable idea though, and I don't have the resources (or time) to figure those out.
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