[Dextro]

Spoiler for space:

Originally Posted by Dengar

Ok, before I continue my theories, lets just get a few facts straight.

It's ok if you don't believe these facts to be true, but the way I see the information, these are the current facts:

How the curse/calamity/what's in a name works.
1) At some point at beginning of the school year (but not right from the start of the school year), the amount of seats in the classroom stops adding up with the amount of students in the class, meaning an extra student has mysteriously popped up out of nowhere.

This is a proven fact. Everybody knows this. Therefore, Reiko-san can't be it, since she can't possibly the one causing there to be one too many students in the classroom, after all, she's not in that class, nor is she even attending that school, nor is she young enough to be attending school at all.

2) Up until that point, everyone is safe.

This means that the students can freely talk about what's going on and about what countermeasures are going to be taken that year. Mind you, this is apparently something that the students of Class 3 tend to keep to themselves. What outsiders know about it is usually either hearsay or just random rumors. Don't ask me why or complain about how that's stupid, that's the way things are.

3) All documents and memories are altered to make sure that nobody knows who the added student is.

ALL documents, and ALL memories. Unlike the deaths (which I'll get to in a bit), it seems that the memory alteration affects anyone. Including librarian guy (he said it himself), also the entire school staff, and most likely everyone in town and probably outside of it too. From what I gather from Sakakibara's conversation with his father, the memory alteration isn't an instant thing though. It's more like, the effect cascades every time somebody makes a statement that doesn't add up with the false "truth". Somebody who has already had their memory altered proposes that what they're saying is wrong, the one making the statement would then get a momentary brainfart, and proceed to say something like "you're right, I don't know what led to me thinking that".

4) After the "new" student is added, people start dying at least once a month, unless certain countermeasures are taken. None of the countermeasures work 100% and none of them are foolproof, but it's better to try than not.

Uhhh, I think this part has already been explained pretty thoroughly, including what countermeasures people have come up with. Cause of death can apparently be ANYTHING. Also, the countermeasures seem to be a double edged sword. Willingly/accidentally going against the rules seems to increase the chances of the calamity affecting you by an incredible amount. This is only a theory of mine, but unless there is a different factor at work, which I won't rule out, the reason Sakakibara has been safe so far, is because he has been unaware of the rules.

5) Deaths occur among the students, the homeroom teachers, and their family members, up to two tiers.

Here's where what I really want to talk about comes in. This is the one leading to a theory of which I am absolutely convinced that there is at least some merit to it. People who have so far been hit by the calamity so far fit within these boundaries. All of the family members who died were siblings, or parents. Library guy said two tiers, so there probably have been cases of grandparents dying as well. This means, that by extension, the ones who are also in danger are children, grandchildren, and possibly nephews/nieces. Let that one sink in for a bit.

Now that I've finished establishing the rules of the calamity (as far as we know), let me go into a different bit of info.

During Reiko's year, the deaths suddenly stopped halfway through the year.

Anyone see where I'm going with this?

Aside from forgetting the bit where we've been told that the memory-altering effect has a cellphone-like range this is a pretty much spot on list of some important "facts" we know about the event so far.

As for who the Another is I don't have a particular theory so far but I think that the hints towards Sakakibara-kun being it are red herrings meant to distract us from the real clues. For me Mei isn't out of the woodwork yet and the cellphone conversation that put Sakakibara in town 1.5 years before actually drove me to suspect Akazawa Izumi as the another mostly due to the fact that she seems to remember our MC who apparently had his memory altered to forget he was ever in town. My basis for this is simple: what if the fact that these two knew each-other would help in figuring out who the dead person was? Maybe one was close to the other and Sakakibara left town due to Izumi dying. Maybe it wasn't one of them but someone else who they both knew and was responsible for their connection.

I personally think this is a much better train of thought than speculating outside of what we "know" so far and going for theories like claiming Reiko is the Another.

And on the Reiko subject I have a different theory: I think that she was the one who found out how to deal with the another back when she was in class 3-3 and what she had to do resulted in considerable trauma for her. That would also fit in with the comments by her father ("Poor Reiko") and the bird ("Why Rei-chan? Why?") in my humble opinion. I'll go ahead and say it: the way to get rid of the Another was to actually kill him again and Reiko either did it or witnessed it with her own eyes but I'm leaning on the first one.

And before anyone claims that this would set off all kinds of problems with the law remember that when the year ends the another simply vanishes back out of the roster and people's memories so there would have been no actual crime in practice.

Those are my theories so far, can't wait for more episodes to see if I got them right.