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Old 2010-01-18, 11:33   Link #2281
ijriims
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: HK, China
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
@ijriims

If you really took your time to read my posts you'd have noticed that I have already demonstrated the fallacy of this argument. Yes Erika thought Battler was going to murdered. But Battler wasn't murdered at all, he wasn't even the target.

I'll repeat it for the last time:

If you get to the right spot because of a right reasoning it's your merit.
If you get to the right spot because of a completely wrong reasoning, you have no merit whatsoever you have just been lucky.
I have to say this argument is flawed:

A good reasoning does not depend on its outcome. I could have get into a gamble since my expected return is greater than 0, however, even if the result turns out to be a loss, my action is justified and reasoning is sound.

You did not prove that Erika's reasoning is wrong except from the fact that Battler was not murdered in the end.

Let me illustrate through an example:

You have a vaccine against a lethal disease once infected, however it can only served one person while you have two subjects. One is a child and the other is a adult man.

You know from experience and common sense that the child could have a less developed immune system, as well as less knowledge in personal hygiene. Thus the child is probably more susceptible to the disease (a higher probability of infection), so you use the vaccine on the child.

However, the result turned out that the adult man got the infection and died.

So, is your reasoning wrong because the result turned out not to be following your reasoning?

The same applies for Erika's reasoning that Battler was the most probable victims among all, even though the result turned out that he was not killed in the end.

If you want to say Erika's reasoning is wrong in the beginning, then you have to show that under the situation (before the murders occured), Battler was not the most probable victim, it should be someone else.
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Last edited by ijriims; 2010-01-18 at 12:05.
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