[seemmeriast]

Overall
The draw this year is quite balanced. Unlike most previous years, there is no significantly weaker group than the others, meaning that getting into Elite Eight is not a piece of cake for anyone. Group F seems to be Group of Death, but it's still reasonable, not as insane as 2009's Group F. In term of the dominating series Saki, this is an average year for them, not as favorable as 2009 or as bad as 2010. So, I expect about 3-4 Saki girls in this year's Top 8.

(The first three numbers in the bracket  are numbers of characters that finished 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in the first prelim, respectively.)

Group A (1 + 3 + 2 = 6)
This group is mainly dominated by Saki girls. The strongest non-Saki characters are Kobato and Tomoka, but they are not that strong. Kobato may have a chance to defeat Saki herself, but I don't think she will be able to beat Koromo, who is likely to defeat Tomoka and Tacos in second and third rounds. Speaking of Koromo, her success in the past was partly because of her luck. She was placed in the weakest group both in 2009 and 2010 and won it easily both year. This year her group is more challenging, but I still expect her to win again and become the first character in Saimoe history to reach Elite Eight 3 times.
Prediction: Kobato vs Koromo

Group B (3 + 1 + 2 = 6)
On the left side, Toki's path to group final is very clear. Iori can't stop her if assassination doesn't occur. On the right side, Akarin will meet Azusa in Round 2, but I don't think people still want the previous champion again. I doubt that Azusa may not even pass Yuno in the first round, since Yuno just needs to get into second round for her 6th time in order to break Nanoha's record. Misaki Mei is also a tough opponent in Round 3, but Akarin should still be able to defeat her.
Prediction: Toki vs Akarin

Group C (0 + 2 + 2 = 4)
Kyouko will face split vote in the first round, but I don't think that will be any problem at all since Rise isn't even comparable to her, plus Shizu is not very strong. Then, Kyouko is likely to defeat Hisa. Lotte may also face split vote in Round 2 if Asuha wins, but that's not a problem either. Ui, Yune, and Erica have almost equal chances, but I expect to see the revenge match of last year's quarterfinalists Lotte vs Erica in Round 3, with Lotte's victory.
Prediction: Kyouko vs Lotte

Group D (1 + 2 + 1 = 4)
This group contains most Saki characters, but only Mihoko is the strong one, and her path is quite clear. I don't see anyone who can stop her before reaching group final. On the other side, Nagi will defeat either Louise or Touka, and might defeat Mihoko as well in group final.
Prediction: Mihoko vs Nagi

Group E (2 + 1 + 1 = 4)
Touwa Erio is not what she was last year, so I don't think she stands any chance against Hina. Yuu will defeat her teammate Arata in the all-Saki match and advance to the tough match against 2009's winner and runner-up in the second round. I think Yuu is capable of defeating both of them as well as Charlotte (or Rin) in the third round.
Prediction: Hina vs Yuu (Can't choose the winner... Let's call it a tie!)

Group F (6 + 0 + 5 = 11)
This year's Group of Death, especially on the right-hand side of the group - the real evil. We have FIVE prelim winners there. (None of them will meet in the first round, though.) This is really hard to predict, but let's see... First, if Ryuuka beats Mugi, we will have a match between three prelim winners in Round 2, which will be a really bad news for Saki to have split vote between two of its aces against a strong character like Nyaruko. In that case, Nyaruko is likely to win. However, I think Chitanda is stronger than Ririchiyo-sama and Nyaruko, plus she will get revenge votes from Saki fans in her match with Nyaruko, so we should have Chitanda in the group final. (Even if Ryuuka doesn't beat Mugi, I still think that Chitanda may be able to defeat Kuro.) On the left side, Kirame will have a challenging match against Ohana and Karen, but she will beat them as well as Yui (Funami) in Round 3. For the group final, KyoAni just has to get its character into Top 8 every year since 2005 (except, well, last year).
Prediction: Kirame vs Chitanda

Group G (2 + 3 + 2 = 7)
Another group with a lot of strong Saki girls. The strongest non-Saki character here is Ika Musume. Last year, she was probably the strongest non-Madoka girl and only lost to the eventual champion, but this year's prelim makes me doubt whether she is still that strong. Anyway, she should have a decent fight with Ako in the second round, which the winner is likely to defeat Yamada in the next round. Both of them have almost equal possibilities to win, but I will go for Ako. On the other side, Nodoka is somewhat stronger than Momo. I want to see Nodoka vs Aria in Round 3 to add one more Kugimiya to her collection. (Nagi, Louise, Taiga, Shana, Tacos; only failed to defeat Taiga.)
Prediction: Nodoka vs Ako

Group H (2 + 3 + 1 = 6)
On the left side, Shana, Black Lotus, and Poplar are all possible to reach group final. I think it will eventually be Shana who makes it. On the right side, Kana doesn't stand a chance against Sena in the second round. We may have Mio vs Sena in the third round, and the latter is likely to win.
Prediction: Shana vs Sena