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Karen's loss was definitely strategic voting trying to take out a huge threat.
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Kanna strength is fairly unknown, though. She was in a really weak prelim group and finish 3rd. Okay, Karen finished 3rd behind Toki and Saki also. Statistically, Kanna get higher percentage of vote, but is also in a group that's significantly weaken compare to Karen (Group 4 v. Group 5).
If anything, the only unexpected things is how wide the margin is (Kanna and Karen are statistical tie in my opinion, so I expect Hercule-Ryuushi or Ryuuka-Mugi margin). Nisemonogatari in general are pretenders anyway, though...
Last thing I wonder is whether the KitaEri madness (Kokoro incident) spill over to the match...