The demise of the U.S. dollar for M.E. oil pricing
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In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France – to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar.
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Hmm, I can see why China and Japan would want this as these countries are heavily long USD, and with the producers in Russia and the Middle East, stability would be good, esp. since they are relying on the income to subsidize many parts of their countries. Russia also still sees itself as a world power (instead of a major regional one) as well.
1. Would China
want to include the CNY in this? Go far enough down this path, and the yuan can become a reserve currency, which risks its holders using the currency to have a say in Chinese policies. Right now, the U.S. has to balance its words and actions to not cause problems - something China would need to do as well if this was to happen.
2. What's to protect the consumer countries? With pricing done in USD, you just have one country's decisions to deal with. With a basket of currencies, you have multiple countries, and at times, all of them can want different things.
3. If this was to happen, what would the U.S. do? ATM, I don't see the U.S. gracefully back out of the spotlight - and into the crowd - in the same way England did a couple of centuries ago.
4. France and no Germany? France, in Total, is big in this area globally, but Germany is, IMHO, bigger in terms of actual production of goods. You need German buy-in - not to mention Great Britain, the Scandinavian countries and South American ones - in the end.