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Some clarifications and adding what data I have.
#1. There exist only one or two ip address in Korea that can has not been blocked by 2-chan for the purpose of Saimoe. It is harder for Koreans to vote compared to people in North America or Europe. Consequently, number of Korean voters is lowered then USA and many other countries.
#2. All data seems to suggest that between third to half of the voters in ISML votes in Best Moe. Also, more than half the non-Korean voters in Best Moe seems to be voting in ISML. This guess is based upon all the voter trend and distribution reports ISML and Best Moe has released. The biggest difference between Best Moe and ISML comes from existence of large, mostly female, fan club voters in Best Moe without which might make ISML results and Best Moe results come close to within 1 ~ 2 %. Since so many matches in Best Moe and ISML is decided within that 1 ~ 2 %, it can still give impression of totally being different, but if you consider overall picture, there exist strong positive correlations between the two results.
#3. Based on above statements, while it is reasonable to guess Best Moe results from ISML results, same cannot be said about Saimoe as percentage of voter overlap is noticeably smaller between Saimoe and all other Moe Tournaments.
#4. Umineko and Bakemonogatari are two of the series that has gotten stronger reaction from Asian crowds compared to English speaking crowds. Among Asian crowds, may be due to screen time, Beatrice is said to be #1. Things will change as Umineko is still airing.
#5. Toradora winning in Best Moe was very predicatable given that the core Best Moe voters are very partial to a new series's main heroine(s). She also satisfy some other core fetish of being a tsundere, not well-endowed, and appearance that is less than 20, not made from Kyoto Animation, and is capable of soliciting favorable opinion from majority of females. Taiga even satisfy the super-fighter quality. Let me list the previous winner and please tell me if I missed anything else that is common between them
2006 Suiseiseki ( Rosen Maiden )
2007 Katsura Hinagiku ( Hayate no Gotoku )
2008 Horo ( Wolf and Spice )
2009 Aisaka Taiga ( Toradora )
In 2009, only other character that might have had chance was Akiyama Mio( K-ON ), but she isn't as strong a tsundere, is well endowed, not much combat capability, more likely be ignored or be cursed at by female anime watchers, and is from KyoAni made series. When you consider all the qualities I mentioned, you can see that there just wasn't many viable, popular alternatives to Aisaka Taiga. In this light, I believe it is safe to say we have not seen the most likely candidate to win Best Moe yet. Senjougahara Hitagi suffers the most from fading memory of the viewers as her series aired too early. Same with girls in Seitokai no Ichizon. The winner in Best Moe 2010 will very likely come from someone new from a new series that aired in first two quarter of the 2010. This trend can be broken, but you better start creating tons of web-cartoons, fan-arts, and animated materials based upon character you like, and hope that it will overwhelm people for the next 12 month.
#6. Also going by trend analogy, many people in Korea has been pointing to some trend in existence in Saimoe and believes that it is highly likely that Saki faction will continue to dominate next year and will become the winner. Haruhi series will give challenge, but 2-chan has long history of blocking ip-address that tends to vote for Haruhi characters. It also has been suggested that they don't like Shana voting ip as well. If you go strictly with within Japan popularity, Saki still have huge advantage and its fans will be even hungrier for victory, since they came so close.
#7. Speaking of Shana, it is just incredible how much support Shana maintains after all these years, outside Japan. It makes the contrast between Shana's performance outside Japan and inside Japan much sharper.
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