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I watched KnowNoMore's videos and I think his theory is impressive. So much better thought out than anything I did. But even then I rate it only as "plausible", because the picture he paints of Rosa as the culprit isn't any stronger than what episode 7 does with Yasu.
Also it has the gross implication that the author is continuing to mess with us and lied in interviews. But just the fact that two completely different culprit theories can be made for the same story that are this detailed, kinda blew my mind. It made me think there's maybe more to Umineko than what we see, and now some part me of me expects Ryukishi to some day come back wearing a huge troll grin as he reveals the true conclusion to the story.
Unrealistic, I know...but it would be damn awesome.
Far-fetched speculation: Maybe the smoke-and-mirrors is continuing on this long because he wants to give manga-only readers time to finish the story and draw their own conclusions.
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