There's no guarantee, though, that the culprit is the same in every arc. Infact, in some cases, like in Episode 3, it can't be. The identity of the culprit may be the "mutable, changing rule" that confuses Bernkastel so much.
Quote:
"For this moment, nobody exists but you on this island. However, I'm here and I'm about to kill you. Who am I ?"
Furniture don't have a real existence. It could mean Shannon.
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Beatrice has stated in red that furniture count as people. It is implied Beatrice was talking about a bomb with that line.