[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by Renall

It wasn't checked. There is no evidence that it was. Or, the police were fooled, and verified something they were misled to believe.

The Rokkenjima incident was discussed for 10 years as a consequence of those messages being showed, and you think that no one checked if the first was actually discovered by the police and taken in custody as a proof?

And the police was fooled, how?

Originally Posted by Renall

It's really not a problem, not even remotely.If they consider it fanciful nonsense unresponsive to an incident they have determined to be an accident, why comment? If they were fooled too, why not confirm?

According to Okonogi the police made further investigations as a consequence of all these speculations. So your idea that the police couldn't care less is wrong, unless of course you question what Okonogi said as well.

Ah and of course you'd also need to think that Ange is completely clueless about anything Rokkenjima incident related to be told all those false claims and buy them all.

Originally Posted by Renall

They were not timely made public. That is inherently suspicious. And that the police released evidence at all... well, isn't that odd too? Ootsuki acts like he's actually seen the original messages, else how would he know whose handwriting it was?

It's not "like", Ootsuki did claim he has seen the original messages.
I don't think it's so suspicious that the police didn't make public a completely suspicious message in a bottle that could be completely irrelevant to the case. As far as I know the police doesn't particularly likes journalists and wild speculations. But after another message was discovered they could no longer prevent that.

Originally Posted by Renall

Ootsuki didn't make anything up, but Ootsuki will believe what he's told if it makes the situation more interesting. He might check up on a story, but we simply have no proof he ever did so beyond meeting with Ange.

We have proof that he physically checked those stories since he visioned the messages with his own eyes. Why he needed to do that if he only cared about speculating? Look, you are grossly underestimating Ange if you think she'd waste her time with a total idiot.
Ootsuki must be one of those guys that "wants to believe" but he's competent enough to check his facts. He is an university professor he has a lot to lose in credibility for making claims that any of his detractors could easily prove wrong.

Originally Posted by Renall

The story is not "falsified," at least if it was written by the person we think is the author. Its provenance was falsified for effect. Would a person who meticulously prepares secret bank accounts ahead of time really not be able to pull this off?

I must ask you why you go so far into questioning that the police made a claim that is confirmed from different sources and at the same time you give for granted that the messages were written by Beatrice even so we actually don't even have an explicit claim about it from the 1998 perspective.

Why you aren't that skeptical with the bomb theory, even so from the 1998 perspective the only thing that is known are the words of some witnesses about Kinzo's tall talks?

Where's the coherence in your logic?

Originally Posted by Renall

Irrelevant. The story claims most of the bottles were found quickly.

Most of the bottles?! Most of the bottles?!
One bottle was found soon, one bottle was found several years later. There are only two freaking bottles! How exactly can you use the word "most" when the total number is two?!

The story I have shown clearly demonstrates that it is absolutely not impossible for a bottle to be found several years after being thrown, even without traveling at all.

There is absolutely no reason to distrust a completely plausible story.

Originally Posted by Renall

True, but you're stubbornly refusing to understand the dichotomy I'm trying to break down here.

• If she wrote them before the incident, she had to have written them well before and yet not so far before that certain events could not have been changed (Battler returning, Ange not coming, the storm's exact duration). Assuming we don't think she was a killer, the only rational explanation I've seen given is that the stories were drafts while brainstorming her idea for the murder game, which may or may not have really happened. This would explain why she didn't care about whether they were all found.
• If she wrote them after the incident, she obviously would have to be alive. If she's alive, she is in a position to set up the Witch Hunt, and a motive for doing so (locating Battler). She also has a motive to kill Eva in the stories (her own little way of exonerating her, and to establish the stories as clear fictions). She also lacks most time constraints, and probably financial constraints as well if that bank card existed.

On balance, I think the second of these is more rational and more in keeping with her personality.

I clearly made a point that the "it's more rational" argument fails with Umineko, so it's not really a reason I can consider to evaluate the validity of a theory.
The only thing I can consider is how much they are grounded within the facts presented in the story.

So on your second point I don't really think what you suggests matches with what we know about Beatrice at all. She is at best a prankster, not an evil mastermind capable of manipulating the police and the whole world. You are assuming a degree of skill by far higher than what's required to fool a bounce of servants.

Also if your theory was right Beatrice would have been able to locate Battler. But there's absolutely nothing that suggests she did.

Your theory also raises a lot of questions: how Beatrice survived? Is there a third escape route we aren't aware of? How does she know that Battler survived? Where did she live for all those years? Why Ryuukishi never mentioned anything of that sort? Why everything from a metaphorical sense strongly implies that Beatrice died?

Originally Posted by Renall

The obvious counter is "well why didn't we see that confirmed?" but once again, the former is never actually confirmed either. They both require assumptions be made and speculation be engaged in.

They aren't even remotely on the same level. The former doesn't require any speculation from the reader, it's what was said in several instances and explicitly stated in EP8.

The latter is only the fruit of your own speculations.

Originally Posted by UsagiTenpura

Umineko Rei would most likely be a comedy.

Expectations toward it bringing much truth feels similar to me how nearly everyone expected arc 8 to bring out a clear truth about "Rokkenjima Prime".

It most likely then not won't happen.
Ryuukishi even said the mystery part of Umineko to be over with the release of arc 7. Even arc 8 I feel for the most part only gave us a lot of munitions for whatever we already believed in.

That.

Originally Posted by Judoh

I might be wrong, but I get the impression that the rei arcs are short stories he writes to give himself extra time to come up with his next project. That way he has a year to come up with the groundwork for his next world.

And that.