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The Japanese were betting on the Americans not having the will for a long fight, or possibly hitting them so hard they would negotiate a peace before 1943.
Admiral Yamamoto predicted correctly that if Japan could not secure a peace with the Americans on Japanese terms within six months of Pearl Harbor, the Americans would eventually steam roll the Japanese under American industry.
Some suggest one a the problems the Japanese had was their reliance on light tanks in Asia. Such things could not handle the Soviet tanks that would being made to match the German tanks (or in many cases the German heavy tanks were being made to better the Soviet tanks).
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