HopelessLover, it is important to not just look at what has occured in the past, but understand why they happened. I'm not suggesting the Wii will become the top console of this generation, but looking at what the three console developers are doing now, and comparing that to what they've done in the past, it's quite reasonable to predict that the Wii and 360 will gain significant ground on the PS3 in the very least.
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Originally Posted by HopelessLover
Wii still doesn't support dvd playback,
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That was only an issue when DVD players were expensive, yet already definite as the next media of choice. One could make the comparison that the PS3 will play BlueRay, however that's not wholly accurate because the PS3 will also not be cheap, and BlueRay is not definitely going to be the next media of choice.
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has pretty much the same half-assed online promise the gamecube had,
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You are misinformed. The Gamecube never had an online plan, Nintendo never promised anything. This time they are promising something akin to basic XboxLive, or at the very least similar to the DS's proven online component. It remains to be seen how much Nintendo will support this, but given how successful the DS's WiFi network has been, I'd say Nintendo plans to go all out and really follow through with what they've stated.
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has current-gen graphics,
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A common misconception. While Nintendo states that the Wii will not be nearly as graphically powerful as the PS3, it is still a significant improvement over the console which brought us some of the most visually impressive games of this passing generation.
It, of course, does not help that Nintendo seems to have always downplayed the graphics power of its consoles since the N64.
People were certain the Gamecube would be the least visually impressive console of this generation, right up until it launched. Some people still insist that it is, despite the proof of their own eyes.
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and is overall the same thing as the gamecube but with a gimmicky controller and new console design.
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If this line of reasoning was as prevailent in console designers as it is in gamers, we'd all still be using a controller similar to the Atari 2600 joystick. One directional stick, and one action button. The fact of the matter is, the gaming media seems universally enthralled by the Wii's controller.
The word "gimmick" implies a feature that is undersupported, and does not add much to the gaming experience. This seems to go against what has been reported about the Wii so far.
Now, I do not comment on your personal decision to like or dislike the Wii, or Nintendo's choices in its design. That's your trip. However, whether or not the system will fail is supposition, not opinion, and it is based on perceptions, again not opinions.
I personally think it will be a bigger success than the Gamecube, though I expect the PS3 will continue Sony's overall dominance of the market. We will, of course, have a much clearer view of the situation once both systems have launched later this year.