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Madoka's power only does anything once she makes a wish, so that doesn't really make any difference.
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This is demonstratably not true, since it directly effects 1) How intently Kyubey decides to harass her, and 2) whether or not Oriko has a precognitive vision of the destruction her witch will cause, prompting her to assassinate her.
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Plus, her witch is already pretty dangerous, even in one of the timelines when Homura still had glasses, so if Oriko is still relevant in other timelines, she would've done something previously.
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It's not until the 4th timeline where Madoka's witch is explicitly capable of destroying the entire world in ten days, though. The second timeline? Nnnnot so much.
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I think Homura in this manga already knew about Gretchen too, since she seemed to understand what Oriko and Kirika were trying to do, more or less, and doesn't act surprised that they think killing Madoka will prevent the world being destroyed. Yet she was terribly unfamiliar with those two. So even if this isn't in the anime's continuity, there has been at least one previous timeline where Gretchen exists, but Oriko never did anything.
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Again, we don't have the information you act like we do. Is the Gretchen of the 4th timeline strong enough to prompt Oriko's vision? What's the cutoff point? Did she even make her wish in any of the earlier timelines? Given that she made her wish after her father commited suicide, maybe he's normally targeted by a witch Puella Magi Madoka defeats in the earliest timelines? We don't know. Maybe her father only commits suicide when Madoka doesn't contract.
We have nowhere near enough information to know what sets Oriko-the-Madoka-killer into motion, but the factors we DO know of are present in every timeline that comes AFTER that one, so logic, reason, and common sense tell us that Homura has to take some sort of preventive measure.