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1) that info you’ve presented can’t be inferred from the SN alone, which (even if the info itself is true) screams bad writing for me
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It can be inferred by the simple fact everyone witnessed the red truth about Natsuhi not being the culprit. You said it yourself the red is not questionable. It doesn't matter if in that trial it couldn't be accepted for some internal rule.
The red is the truth there's no reason to question it.
Another thing that is quite clear is the fact that Bern knows that Kinzo is dead.
I present this fact: Lambda says in front of Bern and Battler that: "
Kinzo is already dead"
There is absolutely no possible way for Bern to doubt that. However Erika makes a theory that involves Kinzo being still alive, and Bern allows her to use that explanation.
How do you explain that?
Remember, Erika uses Kinzo as a way to explain how the bodies disappeared, so Bern knows well that this theory is false and therefore she
knows she hasn't really found an explanation for this mystery.
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2) still doesn’t explain why Lambda acknowledged Berun’s victory at the end of Ep 5
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Well can you? Even with your theory Bernkastel and Erika still didn't find the right solution. If your assumption is that Lambda wouldn't give them the victory unless they find the true culprit, then you are going to have a problem making sense out of it.
Bern and Erika didn't find the truth, but Lambda accepted their victory anyway <- this is a fact
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3) makes Berun’s actions look silly, because the only certain (and don’t forget, she’s playing with the Witch of Certainty there) way to defeat the Illusion of the Witch is to try to present the real culprit, not some half-baked fake.
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This is not what Bern believes as I have clearly demonstrated.