[ashesatdusk]

I have some formal background in this. (4th year student of Economics and International Relations, focusing on east asia, at UBC, one of the top universities for east Asian research). I'm jumping in only having skimmed, on Japan's militarization


Article 9 is essentially inserted in the policy, by the U.S.

Japanese Democracy is oligarchical in nature. Much more so than western Democracies. Essentially a One party democracy with a huge idealogical spread, minority parties are just splinter parties from original party with no idealogical stance. Party designed to win decentralized elections, nothing more. Result broader public opinion ignored. In Japan its quite rare for parliament and the Prime minister to have more than 50% national support. Strong Authoritarian nature, particularly because of strong beauracracy with life time appointments (This is typical of east asia, democracy is far weaker). Point parliament has some wiggle room to ignore public opinion. Many Ultra Conservatives are very influential members of Government (Koizumi, Ozawa ect).

Public Opinion at moment is strongly in favor of Article 9, at the moment does not support remilitirization. Conservative nationalist wing largely wants to remilitarize but keep U.S protection. So at the moment or in near future any drastic militirization is highly unlikely. Part of the focal reasons for wanting to keep U.S protection is strong public opposition against nuclear weapons, but presence of tension with China (certain 1990s incidents) would more or less force Japan to adopt nuclear weapons as a deterrent without proper defense.

This is important to realize Japan in international relations will rarely go against U.S.A on focal issues. More minor issues i.e. Kyoto Protocol.


Nationalist wing is the problem for East Asian relations, particularly. Japanese education Curriculum does not emphasize teaching consequences of World War II. (unlike civil rights) Only recently has japan's war crimes. One of the focal issues is the fact that the Japanese imperial blood line, was never held accountable. That blood line is still preserved and never been held accountable.

Japan-China relations Taiwan is a focal issue. Until recently U.S.A and Japan together had implicitly supported Taiwan's legitimacy as a seperate country. This is weaking, decline of U.S. Soft Power is part of it. Increasing economic interdependence between the two country.

It is important to realize that international relations tensions are seperate sphere from economic relations. East Asia has strong independent national identities, but high level of economic interdependence, especially recently have become highly integrated economies. The U.S as their most significant trade partner. Highly integrated nature along with large East asian funding of U.S economic activity (Savings is required for economic growth, America does not save, but East Asia saves on America's behalf) has created a high level of interdependence. If U.S continues on a slow protracted design. Global Politics could be dominated by an Alliance (maybe not long term) between U.S and East Asia. (Currently its dominated by the U.S, though in the recent financial crisis, European Union has taken a more dominant role).

Please, forgive the poor grammar, and sentance fragments. I wanted to post this quickly not take one hour for a post.