I think England has a decent chance if Roy Hodgson has the time to put down his organization. He's a good defensive coach which is 'perfect' for underdogs in tournaments and England is one (unlike what the press and fans usually like to insist) and this time around the English press isn't expecting unrealistic things this time around which works in England's favour.
I can see them reaching the quarter-finals, with a bit of luck the semi-final and with plenty of Chelsea luck winning it, but surely lightning won't strike twice in the same year? (knocks on wood
)