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I still say that there will be no war.
Like hobbes_fan pointed out, a player is not the only thing needed for HD-Playback. More important and also more expensive is the TV that needs to be able to display the signal in useful resolution and size.
There will be early switchers who can afford an expensive TV and player but the overall transition is going to be much slower than with DVD, where the advantage was bigger and all was needed was an existing TV and a cheap DVD player.
The important point is: When the big chunk of consumers is going to switch, they might not have to make a choice anymore. Not because one format died but for the same reason as with DVD-/+R: Combo players.
The first HD-DVD/BluRay combo players are already available and once they drop in price, no one is going not to buy the combo option.
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